Wave of coups in Africa: What President Paul Kagame thinks
The recent surge in military takeovers across Africa has also overthrown leaders in Burkina Faso, Gabon, Guinea, Mali, Niger, and Sudan. And at least seven coup attempts have been thwarted since 2020.
The coup that removed Guinea-Bissau’s Umaro Sissoco Embaló from power earlier this week was the 10th on the continent in five years.
Just last month, another group of military leaders seized power in Madagascar, ousting Andry Rajoelina, who, like Embaló, has since gone into exile.
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The recent surge in military takeovers across Africa has also overthrown leaders in Burkina Faso, Gabon, Guinea, Mali, Niger, and Sudan. And at least seven coup attempts have been thwarted since 2020.
So, what’s behind the renewed wave of coups on a continent where some 45 nations - out of 54 - have experienced a coup since independence? What does this say about the state of governance in Africa, and what can African leaders do differently?
The New Times put these questions to President Paul Kagame during Thursday’s news conference at Village Urugwiro, and the Rwandan leader spoke bluntly as he addressed a subject that likely keeps many African leaders awake at night.
“I believe it’s true, where coups are taking place, there must be something wrong that has been happening all along,” Kagame said. “Once there is a coup, maybe 90 per cent plus, it means that there has been a problem.”
“I’m vindicated,” he said, responding to a reference to his previous assertion that coups were often the result of leaders failing their people. “And maybe we’ll have more coups – and so be it.”
Knee-jerk reactions
“What’s interesting is that some of these coups are happening in places where these people who make judgments about us, the West, have been praising leaders, as if “to tell these people (the West), ‘you’ve been telling lies’.”
The new leadership of Guinea-Bissau poses for the cameras, as the junta officially takes over amid many lingering questions. (Photo: Patrick Meinhardt/AFP/Getty Images via DW)
Kagame said that analysts need to look deeper while assessing such developments and try to answer the question ‘why the coup should not have happened anyway’.
“We might then get to understand whether there have been underlying problems or not, and somebody just, out of madness, acted and overthrew a government,” he noted.
People tend to have a knee-jerk reaction to coups, he said, warning against any approach that might be dismissive of genuine grievances.
‘Good and bad coups’
“There are good coups and bad coups,” Kagame said. “There might be a coup by somebody who got high-handed, and high anyway, and became reckless and thought, because he has a gun, he’ll go and take power, that’s a bad coup.”
But, he added, “if a group of people said, ‘no, enough is enough, these guys have been telling us lies, they’re enriching themselves, they are cheating us, we can’t have it anymore, it’s stinking’, and they go for whatever form they do it, I think I’m okay with it,” the President said.
“I know I’ll be misunderstood, but I’m happy to take the risk, I’m okay with that.”
However, Kagame warned coup leaders that they must act differently and correct the wrongs for which they seized power. “I won’t feel settled entirely until I see that somebody who did that or people who did that – who said they were sick and tired, and that was the justification, making a difference.”
“But if you come and do the very things you overthrew people for, or even worse things, then why did you carry out the coup? I’ll just say, ‘no, this one deserves another coup or should go to jail’”.
The President also called out both African leaders who use elections as a smokescreen and cheat their way to new terms, and others, especially from the West, who rush to offer congratulatory messages in exchange for lucrative deals.
“You see these people who talk about democracy, about everything, they’re the first to send congratulatory messages even when they’re privy to this information (about electoral fraud), sometimes maybe they even encourage them to do it,” he said.
Guinea’s military junta, led by Lieutenant-Colonel Mamady Doumbouya, seized power in 2021. (Photo: Sunday Alamba/AP/picture-alliance via DW)
He added, “They give them a call in the evening, ‘you knowww, please... uuh by the way, I have a company there that’s looking for cobalt, can you give them concessions’, and the other one is like, ‘of course, yes, I will’.
“And it’s a deal; it’s a deal for cobalt for (legitimising an electoral fraud).”
“If you’ve a constitutional government led by civilians who are killing their own people, and they are mismanaging everything, and taking all the resources of the country for themselves, and taking them outside, literally destroying the countries they lead, and then there comes an election after four, five years, or whatever... people should also get tired of this.
“If you have that history, should it be automatic that you should continue just because you’re a civilian, even when you cheat in elections?
“It has almost become automatic that if you’re there, you’re sure of winning the next election, even when you’re doing all these terrible things to your own people. Is it justified to say, ‘yes, at least he’s a civilian’, or ‘at least he kills fewer people’, can that be a justification?”
‘Gen-Z protests are avoidable’
President Kagame also weighed in on the growing trend of young people taking to the streets to remonstrate against government excesses. In Madagascar, for instance, coup leaders intervened following Gen-Z protests against Rajoelina’s government.
Such protests, Kagame said, are “an expression that something is amiss”, although it may not necessarily mean that these young people are always right, he added.
On what leaders can do differently, Kagame said, “for those of us who are still around and don’t want to be overthrown, we may need to find a way of making these young people responsible also, so that they feel they are a part of (the governance process), and therefore no need to overthrow (the government).”
While cautioning young people against possible manipulations by self-seeking political actors, Kagame emphasised the need for leaders to always reach out and engage citizens in a candid conversation. “There is a way to do things and to have a conversation in a manner that they become a part of.”
Using Rwanda as an example, the President acknowledged that “countries are faced with limited resources, but leaders who are open and transparent will always win the trust of the people, and the latter will see no need to take matters into their own hands.
“People do not necessarily get everything they want because there are real problems, for instance my country, people wouldn’t have everything as they would wish to have.
“But it’s my duty and other leaders of this country to be out there, transparently, explaining to people why there are these problems, and show the effort you’re making, that involves them, to try and deal with these problems.”
Burkina Faso leader Captain Ibrahim Traoré. (X/Ibrahim Traoré)
He added, “If somebody has a problem that they understand, they won’t be violent, they’ll even be a bit sympathetic.”
‘A small envelope’
“If I go to them and say ‘you know what, I’m really trying to construct this road because I also believe it should be there, but for resources, the envelope is so small that we’ve to split it to cater for so many things; hospitals, schools, this and that, I’m still falling short of the budget to take care of this road, so please bear with me, but let’s be together’.
He added, “And then I’ll also tell them, ‘you see it’s in our tax revenues we’re trying to get money from, but you’re also not paying up, you’re dodging taxes, so please (comply), I’ll make sure that in your money we’ll find ways of making this road.’”
“If you’re transparent, they understand they don’t have that thing because it’s not your problem, it’s not somebody who got the money and took it in corruption or something, why would anybody get angry with me if I have explained like that?”
However, Kagame warned, if citizens suspect that their leaders are not honest enough and are diverting public resources, “they’ll not be sympathetic”.
“If they get news that this man is building a castle in Paris, or in Brussels, or in New York, they’ll come for your throat. It becomes a matter of time; they’ll come at you, and you’ll face it.”
“They may even tell me lies, and laugh, and clap, as they have listened to me, but in their hearts, they’re keeping a grudge with me, so one day they’ll show up on the street.”
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