Fire risk warning issued for Northeastern Kenya as below-average rainfall expected
The warning follows the aftermath of a devastating fire that ravaged over 600,000 acres in Isiolo County.
The Kenya Meteorological Department has warned of an increased fire risk in the Northeastern region due to expected below-average rainfall during the March-April-May season.
Speaking during the 10th National Climate Outlook Forum on Wednesday, Dr David Gikungu, Director of the Department, explained that the forecasted rainfall would have both positive and negative impacts on various sectors.
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The Northeastern counties, including Mandera, Marsabit, Wajir, Garissa, and Isiolo, are expected to receive occasional rainfall, likely below the long-term average for the season.
He said the anticipated impacts of the March-May 2025 rains are expected to affect several sectors, both positively and negatively, with sector leaders providing detailed analyses.
“The long rains in the Northeastern region, covering Wajir, Isiolo, Garissa, Mandera, and Marsabit, are expected to begin between the first and second week of April. However, the cessation date remains undefined, and the distribution of rainfall is expected to be poor,” he said.
“The expected rainfall during the months of March to May long rains season is expected to have both negative and positive impacts across various sectors. The most likely impacts on various sectors will be highlighted by the sector leads.”
The warning follows the aftermath of a devastating fire that ravaged over 600,000 acres in Isiolo County. The blaze, which started on January 17, primarily destroyed pastures in Cherab and Garbatulla sub-counties, affecting approximately 2,500 hectares of forest.
Interior Ministry warning
While the fire has been contained, the Ministry of Interior urged residents to refrain from reckless fire lighting.
The fire spread across several areas, including Guthuba, Biliqi, Dadacha Basa, and Sericho, with Sericho, Bandana, and other regions being particularly affected. Despite the extensive damage, no lives were lost.
The Meteorological Department has urged the Kenya Red Cross to scale up drought preparedness in arid and semi-arid counties (ASAL), prepare for flash floods in high-risk areas, and keep response teams on standby.
The March-May period is a major rainfall season for most of Kenya and equatorial Eastern Africa, with the highest seasonal rainfall typically experienced in the Lake Victoria Basin, the Highlands West of the Rift Valley, the Central and South Rift Valley, and the Coastal Strip.
The forecast for MAM 2025 suggests near to above-average rainfall over the Lake Victoria Basin, South Rift Valley, parts of the Highlands West of the Rift Valley, and the northern regions of the northwestern counties.
However, areas like the Central Rift Valley, Highlands East of the Rift Valley, and most of the Coastal region may experience near to below-average rainfall. Additionally, parts of the northeastern region and the north coast are likely to receive below-average rainfall.
“The long rains in the Highlands East of the Rift Valley and Nairobi County, which include Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Murang’a, Embu, Meru, Kiambu, Nyandarua, Nairobi Counties, and eastern parts of Laikipia County, are expected to begin between the fourth week of March and the first week of April. The rains are likely to cease between the third and fourth week of May, with a fair distribution of rainfall expected,” the Weatherman said.
Temperature forecasts indicate warmer-than-usual conditions throughout the country, with the highest temperatures expected in the Northeastern, Coastal, Southeastern, and Eastern Highlands regions.
Specific forecasts for different areas also suggest that the Lake Victoria Basin, South Rift Valley, and Highlands West of the Rift Valley will likely see near to above-average rainfall, while counties like Nakuru, Baringo, and parts of Laikipia may receive near to below-average rainfall.
Northwestern counties, including Turkana and Samburu, are also expected to experience below-average rainfall, although areas near the South Sudan border could see slightly better conditions.
The weatherman said rainfall season is expected to start on time or with a slight delay, with occasional dry spells.
The peak of the rains is predicted for April, with the Coastal Strip likely to experience the highest rainfall in May.
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