How Kalonzo's 'Ruto is sinking' remark gifted Raila two more Cabinet positions

A last-minute turn-down by Wiper Democratic Movement leader Kalonzo Musyoka activated a backup plan that saw his co-principal in the Azimio coalition, Raila Odinga, scoop the last of the remaining two Cabinet slots.

For six days and since July 24 when President William Ruto announced the second lot of his Cabinet nominees leaving out two positions, Kalonzo had come under increasing pressure to embrace the “broad-based government” idea and deliver Lower Eastern support for the government.

For days, he maintained the idea was unacceptable to him, and that, instead, he saw an opportunity for the opposition to pin Ruto further on the wall until he surrendered.

“Any person joining Ruto’s regime has in effect endorsed the killing, maiming, abductions, and torture of innocent Kenyans. Let it be known those members who have accepted the nomination to join the Cabinet are doing so in their capacity,” Musyoka said after Odinga’s men joined the government.

Between Wednesday, July 24, and Tuesday last week, when the window was completely shut down, Musyoka’s position only hardened. From citing his past credentials as a vice president to quoting Bible verses cautioning against dividing spoils with the proud, he was not going to back down.

Countless emissaries were dispatched to woo the Wiper leader but he stood his ground.

Suna East MP Junet Mohamed, Odinga’s main fixer, spent countless hours with Musyoka over the weekend trying to push him to surrender.

Junet, also a close friend of Musyoka, was pushing for Wiper's strategic entry into the government, with the option of pulling out at the appropriate time. He was also selling fear that the Gen Z revolution if allowed to fester, would bury both Azimio and Kenya Kwanza.

According to sources in the Azimio coalition meeting held on the night of July 23,  this was the same justification Odinga gave to his co-principals. Musyoka had warned about this possibility during the signing of the IEBC (Amendment) Bill, 2024.

Last week Monday, Ruto engaged the final gear, requiring Odinga to make the final pitch to his coalition partner.

“Jakom (Odinga) had a long phone conversation with Kalonzo and explained the exigencies of the moment, and why it would still be a win-win for all. But Kalonzo completely refused to budge, and said there was no way he was going to join Ruto’s government,” a source privy to the intrigues said.

Not only did Musyoka hold his ground in private, but he restated in public what he said in private to Odinga about Ruto’s regime being a “falling and sinking regime”.

“That was the last straw. When the president heard about this, he said ‘let's go’. He reactivated the backup plan and asked Raila for more nominees. After all, the slots were Azimio’s,” the source said.

In the original plan, Musyoka was slated to take up the EAC Affairs and Regional Development docket and to complement Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi in foreign affairs. The Wiper leader has previously served in the Foreign Affairs docket.

For the Attorney General’s position, two names had been floated for Musyoka’s pick. One was Prof Musili Wambua, a law professor at the University of Nairobi who previously ran a law firm together with Musyoka. A smooth operator in government circles, Musili has been in almost every consequential task force or commission, from the constitutional commission of the late 1990s to the recent one on religious institutions which handed over its report on Tuesday. Musili is also the chancellor of Embu University and a commissioner at the Kenya Law Reform Commission.

The other consideration for the AG position was Dr Elizabeth Muli who teaches at the University of Nairobi and who served at the Constitution Implementation Commission.

“Our party leader has made a major sacrifice for the country and identifies with the plight of the Gen Zs. He understands what the country needs right now is a total reset, not quick fixes,” said Nairobi Wiper Chairman Roy Kivusyu.

According to Kivusyu, politics is about appreciating moments when they show themselves, and Musyoka did what was right for the moment.

“At the moment, Raila has wasted all his credentials through his constant flip-flops and somersaults. Through his conduct, people have now come to realise who the real watermelon is. And we are glad to have lived to see this moment,” he said.

Kivusyu said the issues raised by the Gen Z will not be addressed through a Cabinet make-over, and that they will continue to fester until things erupt for good.

By joining an already unpopular government and hoping to sustain it through difficult times, Odinga had wasted his moment, according to Kivusyu.

But there are also those in Wiper who feel that Musyoka missed the moment to put one leg in government. They feel that an additional Cabinet slot for Lower Eastern would have served the region better ahead of the 2027 elections.

While Dr Alfred Mutua was named back to the Cabinet, Musyoka’s side does not see him as representing the region as they do not see eye-to-eye with him. Besides, Mutua has been angling to succeed the Wiper leader as the regional kingpin, hence the bad blood.

The Wiper wing which wanted the slots also felt that since the moment was not created by the opposition, the most the opposition could have done was to take advantage and squeeze whatever concessions they could from the government. They felt the alternative of a revolution was much worse than having an unpopular government in place.

Still, Musyoka holds his position that this was a long-con and that Odinga got the short end of the stick.

“He has been snookered. The stories of national conversations are now over, now that Raila is in,” Musyoka said on Wednesday while reiterating his resolve to be “the last man standing” if that is what it will take.