FAO warns Somalia to prepare for severe flooding during October-December rainy season
The combined influence of El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole is often associated with enhanced rainfall over the Horn of Africa, thus increasing.
Somalia residents use camels to fetch water amid biting drought. (Photo: X/UNDP Climate)
Somalia should brace for extensive flooding during the October to December season due to predicted El Niño rains, the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) in Somalia has warned.
At the moment, the country is facing a drought that is predicted to continue till October, when the rains will start.
According to FAO’s Somalia Water and Land Information Management unit (SWALIM), the immediate risk of major riverine flooding during the June–September period is reduced compared with earlier concerns.
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This is due to limited rainfall observed so far during the April to June season, combined with forecasts indicating a likelihood of El Niño-driven below-normal June-September rainfall over the Ethiopian highlands during the coming months.
As such, Dr Bethwell Mutai, the lead Meteorologist for FAO-SWALIM, adds that while levels particularly along the Shabelle River remain an area to monitor closely, the current short-term flood concern linked to April-June rainfall is gradually receding.
“I want to emphasise that Somalia’s volatile, fast-moving and unpredictable climatic patterns leave us with no room for complacency. It does not in the least reduce the need for preparedness. On the contrary, it gives us a critical preparedness window of more than three months,” Dr Mutai said.
Citing IGAD Climate Prediction and Application Centre’s just-released climate outlook, Dr Mutai, however, notes that the main El Niño-linked flood concern for Somalia is expected from the start of the October to December season.
“Current forecasts indicate a greater than 90 per cent likelihood of El Niño conditions developing during the October–December season. If this materialises, above-normal rainfall across the region could substantially increase the likelihood of significant riverine and flash flooding, particularly along the Juba and Shabelle river basins and other flood-prone areas,” he said.
He added that the risk would be further amplified if a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) also develops (characterised by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the western Indian Ocean relative to the eastern Indian Ocean).
The combined influence of El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole is often associated with enhanced rainfall over the Horn of Africa, thus increasing the likelihood of widespread flooding as was witnessed in 2023 and during the devastating floods of 1997.
He warns that, against this backdrop, government institutions, donors and humanitarian partners must use the coming months to plan accordingly and activate anticipatory action measures.
In particular, FAO recommends that priority actions should include updating riverine flood preparedness and evacuation plans; inspecting and repairing weak embankments along the Juba and Shabelle rivers; identifying and preparing safe higher-ground locations; and pre-positioning critical supplies in flood-prone districts.
The concerned authorities should also agree on financing and activation arrangements before the October to December season, strengthening community early warning and communication systems, and enhancing system-wide activation and coordination under Government leadership
“In summary, while the June-September season river flood threat has eased, this should not be interpreted as a reduced overall flood risk for 2026. The October to December season remains the main period of concern, and preparedness should begin now, not when the rains start,” Dr Mutai said.