Duale discusses Horn of Africa, Red Sea and Gaza Strip with Egyptian President

Kenyan Defence Cabinet Secretary Aden Duale met with Egyptian President Abdel Fatah al-Sisi on Wednesday to discuss military and security cooperation, as well as to confer on international and regional matters concerning the Horn of Africa, the Red Sea, and the ongoing situation in the Gaza Strip.

Duale's visit comes nearly 10 days after Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed concluded his State Visit to Kenya where Ruto and Abiy agreed to respect states' sovereignty amid the Ethiopia-Somalia dispute.

Cairo has consistently argued it will stand shoulder to shoulder with Somalia and slammed Ethiopia's agreement with Somaliland, a breakaway region of Somalia.

Tensions between Egypt and Ethiopia have persisted for years due to the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Blue Nile.

Analysts are concerned that the ongoing instability in Somalia, Ethiopia, and Sudan combined with the Horn of Africa's strategic position near the Red Sea and the Gulf, could potentially further destabilise the heated-up region.

Kenya's former defence minister now Ruto's National Security advisor Monicah Juma signed a Defence agreement with Egypt in May 2021 during a meeting with a high-ranking Egyptian military delegation headed by Chief of Staff General Mohamed Farid in Nairobi.

GERD tensions

The sealed deal came amid renewed tensions between Egypt and Ethiopia over the second phase of filling the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).

Although Ethiopia is the source of most of the Nile waters, Cairo maintained that the filling, without a treaty, threatens its water governance and national security.

Defence CS Aden Duale during a tour of the Alexandria Shipyard Company, Egypt on March 6, 2024. (Defence Ministry)

On the other hand, Ethiopia, which dismisses the concerns raised by Cairo, says it will not withhold water, and that it has sovereign rights to use the water.

For the past three or so years, Egypt has tried to isolate Ethiopia through military cooperation agreements with various countries strategic to the Nile Basin.

Cairo signed similar agreements with Burundi and Uganda.

This agreement between Kenya and Egypt followed an April 2022 meeting between former President Uhuru Kenyatta and Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry where they discussed the issue of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).

Kenya as Africa's representative at the UN Security Council then had previously announced its support for Egypt's position in the dam negotiations.

Interestingly, Nairobi has maintained a principle of strategic ambiguity and has an age-old mutual defence pact with Addis Ababa which it signed during the days of Emperor Haile Selassie.

It remains uncertain whether Kenya is facilitating communication between Egypt and Ethiopia, and vice versa.

The pace of cooperation between Nairobi and Cairo has grown in recent years, and the two African Union member states held a round of political consultations including a Joint Commission for Cooperation meeting which has been ongoing in Nairobi this week.

Defence Cabinet Secretary Aden Duale when he visited the Egyptian Special Forces Counter-Terrorism Unit in Egypt on March 6, 2024. (Photo: Defence Ministry)

Still in Cairo, Duale visited the Egyptian Special Forces Counter-Terrorism Unit, displaying Egypt's efforts in combating terrorism, similar to Kenya's experiences.

Egypt, like Kenya, faces terrorism threats and has conducted military operations and airstrikes in the Sinai Peninsula to combat terrorist activities.

Additionally, last week, Kenya hosted the Global Counterterrorism Forum (GCTF)- a platform for multilateral engagement to prevent and counter-terrorism.

Egypt and the European Union co-chaired the event, which was attended by senior Kenyan officials from the National Security Advisor's office and the counterterrorism centre.

Shipyard tour

Duale also engaged high-level government and military officials and even toured the Alexandria Shipyard Company.

The shipyard is considered one of the great castles of heavy industries and it has been a pioneering industry of shipbuilding and repairing in Egypt, this makes the Kenyan Department of Defence interested because the Kenya Shipyards Limited was established to address the operational requirements of the Kenya Navy.

Egypt has positioned itself among the few African countries to manufacture large military vessels.

Defence CS Aden Duale during talks with Egyptian President Abdel Fatah al-Sisi and Minister of Defense and Military Production, General Mohamed Zaki in Cairo on February 6, 2024. (Photo: Egyptian Presidency)

The Eastern Coast of Africa has only four shipyards located in Mombasa, Egypt, Djibouti, and South Africa.

Maritime security, in particular, is crucial given Egypt's geographical positioning and control over the Suez Canal, one of the world's most critical maritime checkpoints.

By ensuring the security of this international waterway, global trade routes remain open and unfettered, a direct benefit to the economies and security interests of countries far beyond the Middle East and North Africa.

But the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea have idled the Suez Canal route- a key source of revenue for Egypt as it battles a deep economic crisis.

The Houthi attacks in the Bab Al-Mandeb Strait against merchant ships owned or operated by Israeli companies, or going to or from Israel, are in response to the ongoing Israeli genocide against the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip.

In Nairobi, where there has been a strengthened relationship with Washington, the greatest supporter of Israel, Kenya has recently joined Operation Prosperity Guardian.

This is a United States-led military operation by a multinational coalition formed in December 2023 to respond to Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea.

It is still unclear what kind of support Kenya is going to contribute towards Operation Prosperity Guardian.