Backroom diplomacy as Kenya engages in last-minute lobbying for Raila’s AUC top seat bid
In AU politics, campaigns are not about glossy manifestos; they are about power, influence, and strategic trade-offs.
When African foreign ministers meet in Addis Ababa today for the two-day executive council session, all eyes will be on the high-stakes race to fill the African Union Commission's (AUC) top seat.
While the official agenda will focus on electing six AU commissioners and other senior officials, the real action will be unfolding in whispered conversations on the sidelines — where alliances are forged, deals struck and promises are exchanged.
More To Read
- Audit exposes ethnic imbalance among employees in Prime CS Mudavadi's office
- Sh2.3 million per hour private jet: The lavish and costly Raila Odinga AUC campaign trail
- Mudavadi dodges questions on public budget for Raila Odinga’s campaign for top AUC seat
- State clears passport backlog, opens new offices to ease access for job seekers
Kenya's pick for the AUC chairmanship is Raila Odinga, a veteran politician and one of Africa's most recognisable opposition figures.
President William Ruto, once Odinga's fiercest political rival, is now his unlikely ally, championing his bid on the continental stage.
Leading Kenya's last-minute lobbying effort in Addis is Foreign and Diaspora Affairs Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi, who arrived early, ready to engage in the time-honoured African tradition of horse trading.
"Musalia Mudavadi, Prime Cabinet Secretary and Cabinet Secretary for Foreign and Diaspora Affairs today (Tuesday) leaves for Addis Ababa, Ethiopia to lead the last-minute campaigns for Rt Hon Raila Odinga's AUC chair bid on the 12th to 17th, February 2025," read a dispatch from his office on Tuesday.
In AU politics, campaigns are not about glossy manifestos; they are about power, influence, and strategic trade-offs.
Mudavadi will work to secure support for Odinga through backroom diplomacy.
Kenya will scratch some backs, offering its support for commissioner candidates in return for votes on the big prize — the AUC chairperson.
For instance, in a publicised deal, Zambian President Hakainde Hichilema declared his country's support for Odinga in exchange for Kenya backing Zambia's candidate for the African Development Bank (AfDB) presidency.
It's a classic win-win — on paper, at least. But with eight candidates vying for the AfDB position, including heavyweights from Chad, Algeria, Senegal, and South Africa, Kenya will need to tread carefully.
If Kenya's public endorsement of the Zambian candidate is perceived as tipping the scale too much in one direction, it could alienate other countries whose candidates are in the running.
Raila's unlikely balancing act
Odinga's candidacy carries the weight of Kenya's foreign policy, even though he has remained largely detached from the country's recent diplomatic missteps.
Still, in a race where the job is all about foreign affairs, Kenya's regional and continental manoeuvres will be under scrutiny. The question is whether Odinga can rise above the fray — or become a casualty of geopolitics beyond his control.
Geography plays a decisive role this time, with East Africa set to take the AUC chairmanship and North Africa to claim the deputy’s slot.
Kenya's position as a key player in the region certainly helps. President Ruto already holds significant roles at the AU, serving as the continental champion for institutional reforms, local vaccine manufacturing, and climate change. Whether this level of involvement will be seen as strength — or high ambition bordering on overreach — remains to be seen.
Delicate house of cards
The executive council session in Addis will be crucial in determining Odinga's fate. While Kenya's public campaign is filled with flair and confidence, it's the secret ballot that counts. Much will depend on Mudavadi's ability to convince member states that Odinga is the right man for the job and, crucially, to ensure those promises translate into actual votes.
The commissioner elections will offer some clues on how the political winds are blowing.
Nigeria is determined to retain the highly influential Political Affairs, Peace and Security seat, while South Africa, ever a diplomatic heavyweight at the AU, is bidding for the Infrastructure and Energy portfolio. These commissioner races are not just about portfolios; they are part of the broader diplomatic chess game.
Securing one position can determine who controls the narrative on peace, security, and economic development in Africa for years to come.
The final push
As the summit builds toward its climax, intense negotiations and diplomatic manoeuvring will reach a fever pitch.
Odinga's secretariat hopes to secure a first-round victory — a rare feat in AU elections. The odds are steep, but in the world of African diplomacy, nothing is truly off the table.
By the weekend, African heads of state will gather in Addis Ababa for the main event.
Whether Kenya's high-stakes gamble pays off or falters on the floor of the AU assembly is anyone's guess. One thing is certain — Nairobi has put its horse on the track. Now, it's up to the continental power brokers to decide if Odinga will cross the finish line.
Top Stories Today
