Football

COSAFA CUP 2024: It's do or die for Emerging Stars as they clash with Zimbabwe

Emerging Stars pose for a group photo before the game against Zambia (C) COSAFA MEDIA

By Michael Kirwa | Tuesday, July 2, 2024

Kenya's Emerging Stars will face herculean task this afternoon against a Zimbabwe side that is yet to concede in two matches

Emerging Stars will be eager to their tournament back on track as they face COSAFA CUP Group B leaders Zimbabwe at the Wolfson Stadium in Ibhayi this afternoon from 1 pm EAT.

Kenya started the tournament well with a 2-0 victory over defending champions Zambia on Friday.

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However, the Emerging Stars were knocked off the trajectory of their flying start with a 2-0 loss to Comoros in their second match on Sunday during which Kenya had Paul Ochuoga sent off after 33 minutes.

After the match against the Indian Ocean islanders, Emerging Stars coach Ken Odhiambo expressed eagerness to have the team bounce back against Zimbabwe who are the tournament's best performing team.

Zimbabwe is the only team to win all its matches without conceding a goal after defeating Comoros 1-0 and Zambia 2-0.

Despite their 100% percent record, Zimbabwe's place in the semifinals is not yet guaranteed. They have to win or draw against Kenya to make the last four. That pressure to get a result against the Emerging Stars is what will make the Tuesday afternoon clash a crucial tie for both teams.

Zimbabwe lead Group B with six points. Comoros and Kenya are tied on three points but the former are ranked higher on a better head-to-head record abd also goal difference. Zambia, who are already eliminated, are bottom with 0 points and no goals scored.

The 2024 COSAFA Cup features twelve teams divided into three groups of four. Group A has hosts South Africa, Botswana, Mozambique, and eSwatini.

Group C has Angola, last year's runner-up Lesotho, Namibia, and Seychelles.

The best team in each grouo qualifies automatically for the semifinals while the remaining slot will go to the best second-placed team.

Group A remains the most open as all teams are on two points after all four fixtures played in the group so far produced draws.

In Group C, Angola and Namibia are tied on four points and goal difference but Angola is ranked first on goals scored. Seychelles and Lesotho are also tied on one point and since they also have the goal difference, Seychelles is ranked higher on goals scored.

That being the case, either Angola or Namibia can qualify for the last four as the best second-placed team if they defeat Lesotho and Seychelles respectively. That will put both of them on seven points, a mark no other current second-placed team can reach.

That permutation of Angola and Namibia qualifying for the semifinals with victory in their matches is what leaves the Emerging Stars with a mountain to climb in their match against Zimbabwe.

Kenya will have to fight to win Group B and they can do so by defeating Zimbabwe 2-0 and hope Comoros does not win against Zambia since Comoros will end up trouncing them on head-to-head record. Teams tied on points at the 2024 COSAFA Cup are first separated by head-to-head if they have already played against each other.

Therefore, Kenya will be relying on results elsewhere to go their way in order to prolong their stay in a tournament they are featuring in for only the second time following their group stage exit in 2013.

Kenya's record against Zimbabwe is good enough to raise the Emerging Stars' hopes for a win against their southern Africa opponents. In their 11 previous meetings, Kenya won five, drawn five, lost one, scored 12 goals and conceded 7 goals.

That record includes Kenya's recent 3-1 over Zimbabwe in Malawi during the final of the Four Nations football tournament played in March in Malawi.

Should Emerging Stars finish top of Group B, they will play Group C winners in the semifnal. Should they end up finishing second, they will play the winners of Group A in the last four.