Classified Israeli intelligence data shows 83 per cent of Gaza war dead were civilians

A joint investigation into Israeli intelligence data shows that civilian casualties in Gaza account for 83 per cent of the dead, with the majority of deaths involving women, children and elderly residents who were not engaged in the fighting.

According to the findings, out of 53,000 Palestinians killed as of May 2025, only 8,900 were identified as fighters linked to Hamas or Palestinian Islamic Jihad, leaving the overwhelming majority as non-combatants.

The data, compiled from a classified Israeli military intelligence database and reviewed by The Guardian, +972 Magazine and Local Call, indicates that five out of every six Palestinians killed by Israeli forces were civilians.

Israeli intelligence officials had listed 8,900 named fighters as dead or “probably dead” by May, nearly 19 months into the conflict.

“The Israeli army believed it had killed around 8,900 operatives since October 7, the deaths of 7,330 of whom were considered certain and 1,570 recorded as ‘probably dead.’ The vast majority of them were junior, with the army suspecting it had killed 100-300 senior Hamas operatives out of a total of 750 named in the database,” reads the report.

Therése Pettersson of the Uppsala Conflict Data Programme, which tracks civilian casualties worldwide, said the figures point to an unusually high rate of civilian deaths.

“That proportion of civilians among those killed would be unusually high, particularly as it has been going on for such a long time,” she said.

She added that similar civilian-to-combatant ratios have been seen only in exceptional cases, such as the Rwandan genocide or the Russian siege of Mariupol in 2022.

According to the report, the Israeli military did not dispute the existence of the database or the figures on Hamas and PIJ casualties when contacted by Local Call and +972 Magazine.

A Guardian spokesperson said the military had chosen to “rephrase” its response, later issuing a statement claiming the figures were “incorrect” without specifying which data was disputed. The statement also said the numbers “do not reflect the data available in the IDF’s systems.”

The database lists 47,653 Palestinians considered active in Hamas or PIJ, compiled from internal documents seized in Gaza. Intelligence sources told Local Call that the military considers this database the authoritative record of militant casualties. The Gaza health ministry’s toll, used by the military for planning, only counts recovered bodies, leaving thousands buried under rubble unrecorded.

The findings also reveal that Israeli officials have at times inflated the number of militants killed, including civilians linked to Hamas or unrelated Palestinians.

“People are promoted to the rank of terrorist after their death… If I had listened to the brigade, I would have come to the conclusion that we had killed 200 per cent of Hamas operatives in the area,” a source familiar with reporting procedures said as quoted by the Guardian.

Retired Israeli general Itzhak Brik, who advised Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the start of the conflict, said soldiers were aware that public figures exaggerated militant casualties.

“There is absolutely no connection between the numbers that are announced and what is actually happening. It is just one big bluff,” he said.

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Brik added that units tasked with identifying militants reported that “most of them” were civilians.

Palestinian analyst Muhammad Shehada also said Israel inflated the militant toll, stating, “Israel expands the boundaries so they can define every single person in Gaza as Hamas… All of it is killing in the moment for tactical purposes that have nothing to do with extinguishing a threat.”

The conflict’s civilian impact has intensified as Israeli forces targeted areas where humanitarian aid was distributed, leaving residents confined to just 20 per cent of Gaza.

Since October 2023, Israeli leaders have framed the war as self-defence following Hamas attacks that killed 1,200 people. However, recordings broadcast on Israeli television revealed statements by former military intelligence chief Aharon Haliva suggesting mass killings were “necessary” as a “message to future generations” of Palestinians.

Many Israeli soldiers have testified that Palestinians are broadly treated as targets in Gaza.

The scale of civilian deaths, combined with tactics that leave little distinction between combatants and non-combatants, has drawn widespread concern from international analysts and human rights experts.

Even though much of Gaza has been reduced to ruins and tens of thousands of people have been killed, the classified database lists nearly 40,000 people considered by the army to be militants and still alive.