Horn of Africa region records sharp increase in violent extremism attacks- IGAD report
Fatalities and injuries during the period more than doubled compared to the previous quarter, with over 1,300 deaths and more than 400 injuries reported. February was the deadliest month, with security personnel accounting for 58% of fatalities, civilians 41%, and aid workers 1%.
The first quarter of 2025 recorded a sharp increase in violent extremism (VE) attacks and retaliatory operations by security forces in the Horn of Africa, according to a new quarterly analysis by the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD).
The report, produced by the IGAD Centre of Excellence for Preventing and Countering Violent Extremism (ICEPCVE), attributes the surge in violence to intensified attacks by Al-Shabaab and ISIS. In response, the Somali National Army (SNA), supported by partners and AFRICOM, carried out a series of large-scale military operations and airstrikes, resulting in the deaths of hundreds of militants.
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“The region continues to face persistent security threats despite ongoing counter-terrorism and counter-violent extremism efforts by IGAD Member States and their allies. The first quarter of 2025 witnessed a marked increase in VE attacks and retaliatory action by security forces, leading to a significant rise in fatalities and injuries,” the report states.
Fatalities and injuries during the period more than doubled compared to the previous quarter, with over 1,300 deaths and more than 400 injuries reported. February was the deadliest month, with security personnel accounting for 58% of fatalities, civilians 41%, and aid workers 1%.
Most of the attacks occurred in Somalia, specifically in Middle Shabelle, Hiran, Galgaduud, Puntland, Jubaland, Hirshabelle, Lower Jubba, Mogadishu, and Galmudug regions. In retaliation, intensive airstrikes were carried out by the SNA in coordination with AFRICOM, especially in the Bari, Middle Shabelle, and Lower Shabelle areas.
In Kenya, several incidents were reported in the North Eastern and Coastal regions along the border with Somalia.
According to the report, 55% of the attacks involved small arms and light weapons, 41% explosives and bombs, 3% ambushes, and 1% assassinations.
“The number of violent extremist and terrorist incidents continues to rise, with devastating consequences. A comparison between the first quarters of 2024 and 2025 shows an increase of over 100% in fatalities and 67% in injuries,” the report adds.
Al-Shabaab reportedly launched multiple coordinated attacks in Somalia during the quarter, including ambushes on military checkpoints and an assassination attempt on President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud. The group is said to have increased its activities closer to the capital in a bid to demonstrate its strength.
While the operations inflicted significant losses on militant groups, IGAD warns that Al-Shabaab and ISIS continue to pose serious threats in the region.
“Violent extremist and terrorist groups have intensified their cross-border operations, exploiting security loopholes and weaknesses in national defence systems,” the report warns.
The report emphasises that sustained security operations, regional cooperation, and intelligence sharing are essential to countering the insurgency in Somalia and along its borders.
The previous quarterly report had flagged a growing presence of foreign ISIS combatants in Somalia’s Puntland region.
“The growing presence of ISIS, made up of foreign fighters from Ethiopia, Tanzania, Yemen, and other Arab countries in the mountainous Bari region of Puntland, poses an escalating threat. However, Puntland Security Forces continue to report successful offensives against them,” the report stated.
It also noted a resurgence of piracy along the Somali coast, highlighting the need for enhanced maritime security to prevent further incidents.
Unlike the current period, the last quarter (October to December 2024) had recorded a slight decrease in violent extremist activity.
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