Rising deaths among youth threaten global life expectancy gains, new study shows
The research reveals a global decline in mortality rates across 204 countries since 2020, though rising deaths among younger populations temper the progress.
Global life expectancy has rebounded to pre-pandemic levels, but rising deaths among adolescents and young adults are threatening these gains, according to new findings from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study published in The Lancet.
The research shows that mortality rates have declined across all 204 countries and territories since 2020. However, the improvement is overshadowed by worrying increases in death rates among younger populations.
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The sharpest rise in mortality over the past decade occurred among people aged 20 to 39 in high-income North America, driven by suicide, drug overdoses, and excessive alcohol use. Similarly, deaths among those aged 5 to 19 increased in Eastern Europe, North America, the Caribbean, and sub-Saharan Africa, largely due to infectious diseases and accidental injuries.
While deaths from infectious illnesses such as measles, diarrhoea, and tuberculosis have fallen globally, non-communicable diseases (NCDs) now account for roughly two-thirds of all deaths. Conditions like diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and Alzheimer’s disease are on the rise, even as deaths from heart disease and stroke decline.
The study links about half of the global disease burden to modifiable risk factors such as high blood pressure, smoking, obesity, and diabetes. Environmental hazards—including air pollution and lead exposure—alongside neonatal risks like low birthweight, continue to significantly influence global health outcomes.
Despite the rebound in life expectancy—averaging 76.3 years for women and 71.5 years for men in 2023—large inequalities persist. Life expectancy remains around 62 years in sub-Saharan Africa, compared to 83 years in high-income regions.
Experts warn that the world must expand health priorities to better protect young people, as reductions in international aid could undermine progress in low-income regions dependent on global health funding and vaccination programmes.
Extensive global analysis
Researchers compiled estimates for 375 diseases and injuries and 88 risk factors, analysed by age and sex across 204 countries, 660 subnational regions, and data spanning 1990–2023. The GBD 2023 study drew from over 310,000 data sources, including 1,211 new location-years of provisional vital records.
The findings reveal that mortality rates among children aged 5–14 in sub-Saharan Africa (1950–2021) were higher than previously estimated, driven by respiratory infections, tuberculosis, and injuries. Mortality among young adult women (15–29) was also 61 per cent higher than earlier estimates, largely due to maternal deaths, road crashes, and meningitis.
Shifting causes of death
The report highlights a global transition from infectious to non-communicable diseases. Covid-19, which topped mortality charts in 2021, dropped to 20th place in 2023, as heart disease and stroke regained the lead, followed by chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal disorders.
Since 1990, deaths from heart disease, stroke, diarrhoea, tuberculosis, stomach cancer, and measles have declined. In contrast, mortality from diabetes, chronic kidney disease, Alzheimer’s disease, and HIV/AIDS has risen.
Although the average global age at death increased from 46.4 years in 1990 to 62.9 years in 2023, wide geographic gaps persist. In high-income countries, women live an average of 80.5 years and men 74.4 years, compared to 37.1 and 34.8 years, respectively, in sub-Saharan Africa.
Persistent and emerging threats
Between 2000 and 2023, the risk of dying before age 70 fell worldwide, but drug use disorders emerged as a major cause of death. In both sub-Saharan Africa and high-income regions, deaths linked to drug use and NCDs are increasing, often occurring at younger ages than expected.
The top global contributors to health loss in 2023 included high blood pressure, air pollution, smoking, high blood sugar, low birthweight, obesity, high LDL cholesterol, kidney dysfunction, child growth failure, and lead exposure.
From 2010 to 2023, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rose 11 per cent for obesity, 9 per cent for drug use, and 6 per cent for high blood sugar. Climate-linked risks such as air pollution and heat also continue to impact health outcomes.
Mental health conditions have surged—anxiety disorders by 63 per cent and depression by 26 per cent—with sexual abuse and intimate partner violence cited as key preventable drivers.
Among children under five, the leading risk factors remain malnutrition, air pollution, and unsafe water, sanitation, and hygiene (WaSH).
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