Kenya Met forecasts delayed, suppressed short rains amid dry spells
The World Meteorological Organisation has also projected a 55 per cent chance of La Niña developing between September and November, with the likelihood rising to 60 per cent in the October–December period.
Kenya is set to face an uneven short rains season this year, with the Meteorological Department cautioning that much of the country will see depressed rainfall between October and December.
The forecast points to prolonged dry spells, poor distribution of rainfall and isolated storms in certain areas.
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The department’s seasonal outlook shows that most of the Northeastern region, Southeastern lowlands and coastal strip will record below-average rains.
The South and Central Rift Valley, the Highlands East of the Rift Valley, including Nairobi, parts of Kajiado, and sections of Marsabit and Samburu are expected to receive near to below-average amounts.
On the other hand, the Highlands West of the Rift Valley and sections of Northwestern Kenya could receive near to above-average rainfall.
According to Charles Mugah from the weather department, the outlook has been shaped by a negative Indian Ocean Dipole expected to persist until November before easing in December.
“A negative IOD typically brings drier than normal conditions over East Africa, potentially suppressing rainfall during the short rains,” he said.
The World Meteorological Organisation has also projected a 55 per cent chance of La Niña developing between September and November, with the likelihood rising to 60 per cent in the October–December period.
The department said it will keep monitoring these changes closely.
Mugah noted that the October–December period is an important rainfall season for central and eastern Kenya, and added that counties are likely to experience varying outcomes.
Kisii, Nyamira, Uasin Gishu, Kakamega and Bungoma may receive near to slightly above-average rains with fair distribution and occasional storms.
Siaya, Kisumu, Homa Bay, Migori and southern Busia will likely get near to slightly below-average amounts, except in northern Busia, where rainfall may be near to above average.
In Nakuru, Narok and parts of Baringo, the rains are expected to be poorly distributed and near to slightly below-average.
Turkana and western Samburu could experience near to slightly above-average rainfall, although prolonged dry spells will feature. Nairobi, Kiambu, Murang’a, Nyeri, Meru, Nyandarua, Embu and Tharaka Nithi are forecast to receive near to below-average amounts with uneven spread.
Kitui, Makueni, Taita Taveta, Machakos, Kajiado and Tana River will likely experience below-average rains, while Mandera, Wajir, Garissa, Isiolo and eastern Marsabit will face similar conditions with extended dry spells. Coastal counties such as Mombasa, Kilifi, Kwale and Lamu are also projected to see below-average rainfall with interruptions and occasional storms.
Alongside the long-term outlook, the department released its weekly advisory covering September 5 to 10, warning of moderate to heavy rainfall in several regions. Areas in the Lake Victoria Basin,
Highlands West and East of the Rift Valley, Northwest and Rift Valley counties are set to receive afternoon downpours, often with thunderstorms.
Affected counties include Kisumu, Siaya, Migori, Homa Bay, Kisii, Nyamira, Trans Nzoia, Baringo, Uasin Gishu, Elgeyo Marakwet, Nandi, Kericho, Nakuru, Narok, Kakamega, Bungoma, Vihiga, Bomet, Busia and West Pokot.
The advisory also highlighted that the Highlands East of the Rift Valley - including Nyandarua, Laikipia, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Murang’a, Kiambu, Meru, Embu, Tharaka Nithi and Nairobi - will experience afternoon showers after cloudy and sunny spells in the mornings, with rains expected to peak on Saturday, September 6.
In contrast, the Northeastern and Southeastern lowland counties are likely to remain dry throughout the five-day period.
The department further cautioned of sharp drops in nighttime temperatures, especially in Nairobi, Nyeri, Nyandarua, Laikipia, Murang’a, Kiambu, Meru, Embu and Tharaka Nithi, where temperatures could fall by up to 5°C.
Western regions, including Kisumu, Kakamega, Kisii, Nyamira and Trans Nzoia, are also expected to experience cold nights.
Strong southerly winds blowing at speeds above 12.86 metres per second are forecast in the Coast, Southeastern lowlands, Northeastern and Northwestern parts of the country.
Residents are urged to stay alert for flooding, chilly weather, thunderstorms and the risks associated with high winds in the affected regions.
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