2027 election to proceed under outdated electoral boundaries, warns IEBC

Kenya is facing the 2027 general election under outdated electoral boundaries, as the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) has indicated that a review cannot be carried out in time.

The process, which adjusts constituency and ward boundaries to reflect population growth, is highly sensitive because it affects political representation and can determine whether some areas are merged, split, or abolished.

Appearing before the National Assembly’s Constitution Implementation Oversight Committee on Thursday, IEBC chairperson Erastus Ethekon described the delimitation exercise as both complex and politically charged, requiring at least two to three years to complete.

“We need two to three years to conduct this technical and emotive issue,” Ethekon said, stressing that Parliament must act to prevent a constitutional crisis.

The Constitution mandates boundary reviews at intervals of eight to 12 years, to be completed at least a year before a general election.

The last review, conducted in 2012, set the clock for the current cycle. The minimum eight-year period ended in 2020, while the 12-year maximum expired in March 2024.

However, IEBC was without commissioners for more than two years, leaving the timelines unachievable until the commission was reconstituted this year.

To clarify its powers, the commission sought advice from the Attorney-General and filed a reference with the Supreme Court in July 2024.

It asked whether it could conduct a review without commissioners, whether the constitutional window could be extended, and under what conditions.

On September 5, 2025, the Supreme Court struck out the case, ruling that only a fully constituted commission could approach the court on such matters.

“On September 5, 2025, the court rendered itself on an advisory opinion in which it struck out the reference filed by the commission. The court opined, among other things, that only a duly constituted commission, comprising the chairperson and other members, could bring the matter before the court for its determination,” IEBC legal affairs director Chrispine Owiye told MPs.

Ethekon told the committee that the commission will meet within a month and provide a final report on whether any boundary review is still possible before 2027.

He also urged Parliament to consider legislative or constitutional measures to address the impasse.

Political sensitivities around the exercise remain high. In 2012, 27 constituencies fell below the minimum population threshold but were “protected” from abolition after MPs blocked their removal.

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The constituencies include Voi, Wundanyi, Mwatate, Galole, Bura, Isiolo South, Samburu East, Laisamis, North Horr, Saku, Kilome, Mukurweini, Mbeere North, Mathioya, Ndaragwa, Budalang’i, Vihiga, Othaya, Kangema, Marakwet East, Keiyo North, Tetu, Mogotio, Lamu East, Lamu West and Mvita.

Population growth since then has raised the constituency quota, and based on the 2019 census, IEBC identified at least 40 constituencies as falling short of the threshold. This means many more areas are now at risk of being scrapped if a delimitation is enforced.

Former Ndaragwa MP Jeremiah Kioni warned that abolishing constituencies without careful planning would be politically impossible.

“To protect the protected ones, we need to increase the number of constituencies and find a mechanism to harmonise the large ones,” he said. Such proposals would require amendments to the Constitution, a process that could provoke further disputes.

The commission also faces challenges with population data. The Kenya National Bureau of Statistics has not confirmed whether the 2019 census can legally guide the review, while the 2009 census was previously ruled inaccurate by the High Court, a decision currently under appeal.

Without verified figures, IEBC cannot fairly determine which constituencies fall below the threshold or allocate voters appropriately.

Article 89 of the Constitution caps the number of constituencies at 290 and requires IEBC to review boundaries periodically.

Ward boundaries must also be revised, considering population distribution, geography, community interests, public input, and communication networks,  adding layers of complexity to the exercise.

Meanwhile, IEBC is intensifying voter registration ahead of 2027.

Ethekon said the commission aims to add 6.3 million new voters to the current 22.1 million registered, through continuous nationwide registration in all constituencies and Huduma Centres.

Commission CEO Hussein Marjan noted that the previous method of using Voting Age Population data for planning voter targets was unreliable.

“The above trend confirms that the commission’s strategy of using Voting Age Population for target setting has not been accurate, sustainable and veritable, noting the impractical targets on the commission,” he said.

IEBC has now adopted the Voter Eligibility Population (VEP) method, using National ID and passport data, to set realistic and achievable registration goals.

Despite these preparations, the unresolved boundary review leaves Kenya on track for another election under outdated lines. Ethekon emphasised the need for Parliament and possibly the Supreme Court to act soon:

“There are issues that might come out, and it is upon us to call upon Parliament to do certain things. We may also call upon the Supreme Court for another advisory.”

With less than two years to the polls, Kenya faces another general election where representation and fairness could be compromised by an unfinished and politically charged delimitation exercise.