Why fight over ODM threatens party’s future, Odinga dynasty - analysts
A vicious rift has emerged within the ODM hierarchy, with tensions simmering between party leader Oburu Oginga and the family of his late brother, Raila Odinga, over control of the party.
The battle for control of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) among family members of the late Prime Minister Raila Odinga risks exposing the party to irreparable fractures, political analysts have warned.
Further, the scramble for leadership of one of Kenya’s most popular political movements could end the Odinga dynasty’s grip on national and regional politics.
More To Read
- Oburu Oginga declares firm grip on ODM, promises to lead in Raila’s footsteps
- Why ODM should convene NDC meeting over broad-based pact with Ruto- Winnie Odinga
- ODM at 20: Babu Owino warns of mass action over cost of living, questions new appointments
- ODM turns 20 amid deepening rift over the party's future, 'broad-based' deal
- Orengo: Ruto needs ODM and not the other way round
- Winnie Odinga dismisses ODM split as ‘frog noise’, says party's strength lies in youth and public conviction
A vicious rift has emerged within the ODM hierarchy, with tensions simmering between party leader Oburu Oginga and the family of his late brother, Raila Odinga, over control of the party.
The now-open war over the party’s soul has prompted a group of ODM life members, led by Rachael Tabitha, to petition the National Elections Board. They demand Oburu Odinga’s immediate resignation, accusing him of violating the ODM constitution and undermining internal democracy.
In their petition, members allege Oburu and a select group have ignored due process, sidelined loyal members, and breached Article 6.2.2(b) of the party constitution. They argue these actions threaten ODM’s founding values of transparency, rule of law, and accountability.
Pundits believe the petitioners are acting on behalf of a faction dissatisfied with Oburu’s rise to the helm.
“Such conduct erodes public confidence, delegitimises party organs, and contradicts the very rule of law that ODM has historically championed. Today, many loyal members feel excluded, ignored, and sidelined,” the petitioners said.
They are demanding Oburu’s resignation, an urgent National Delegates Convention (NDC), and renewed respect for life members’ rights.
“We demand the convening of an urgent NDC to deliberate on the current governance crisis, restore legitimacy to party structures, and reaffirm ODM’s constitutional values,” Tabitha said.
The petitioners gave the National Elections Board 30 days to act, warning they will resign in protest if their demands are not met.
Professor of History and International Relations Macharia Munene told The Eastleigh Voice that ODM is no longer united, even within the Odinga family.
“ODM is permanently fragmented, even within the Odinga family. Without Raila, it is a shell of its former self,” argued Munene.
The feud became public after Raila’s daughter, Winnie, issued a pointed warning last week, claiming some insiders were trying to “sell the party at night”, widely interpreted as targeting senior officials.
The following day, the EALA MP demanded that ODM delegates decide who should lead the “complex”, broad-based negotiations.
Winnie suggested that none of the current ODM leaders fully grasp the complexities of the party’s arrangement with President William Ruto’s UDA, except her late father. She urged delegates to vote on whether ODM should remain in the pact.
“When it came to the matter of the broad-based government, the people of ODM entrusted one person with managing that relationship, and that was Baba, Raila Amolo Odinga,” Winnie said. “Those taking it upon themselves now—are they capable? That is for the people of ODM to answer.”
Her remarks sparked political debate, with some of President Ruto’s supporters attacking her. Observers warn the youthful and articulate EALA MP could team up with other influential figures to challenge the Ruto administration.
Political observer Samuel Owida cautioned that internal wrangles could scatter ODM if urgent measures are not taken.
“Performance and management of ODM after Raila’s exit ahead of 2027 should worry everyone. Power struggles, greed, and selfishness could bring it down and send it to oblivion before 2027,” Owida said.
Oburu, attending the ODM jamboree in Mombasa, downplayed the comments, promising to discuss the matter privately. “I want to tell Winnie that we will speak about that in private, at home,” he said, hinting at tensions.
An insider in the Odinga family revealed concerns that Oburu may not be the right person to succeed Raila. “Winnie’s concerns reflect a broader sentiment that Oburu is not the ideal candidate to lead ODM. Kisumu Governor Anyang’ Nyong’o is seen as more suitable,” the source said.
The tensions highlight deeper disagreements over succession and future control of the Orange party ahead of the 2027 political realignments. A Nyanza MP confirmed the feud between the two family branches persists despite public displays of unity.
On Tuesday, Oburu lashed out at unnamed individuals opposing him, stating: “Those fighting me are fighting someone who is not fighting them.” Analysts note his conservative, technocratic approach contrasts with Raila’s assertive style, fueling doubts about his leadership capacity.
Opinions within ODM differ on Winnie’s remarks.
Deputy party leader Godfrey Osotsi defended her, saying she emphasised that communications with the president should go through party structures, particularly the NDC.
Migori Senator Eddy Oketch added that her call aligns with ODM’s constitutional framework, as the NDC must ratify appointments and decisions.
Top Stories Today
