Opinion: Al-Shabaab’s deadly advance on Mogadishu signals Somalia’s descent into disaster

By Adam Daud Ahmed

Al-Shabaab is no longer just a terror group launching sporadic attacks; it is capturing strategic towns, creeping ever closer to the capital, and shifting from an insurgency to a government-in-waiting. At the same time, Somalia’s federal system is crumbling, its leadership is fractured, and the international community is watching from the sidelines.

If Mogadishu falls, this will not just be a Somali crisis—it will shake the entire Horn of Africa. The warning signs are flashing, yet those in power seem oblivious to the storm that is coming.

For years, Al-Shabaab was defined by its ruthless bombings and assassinations, but something has changed. This is no longer just a terrorist insurgency; it is an alternative government in the making.

In captured towns, Al-Shabaab is enforcing Islamic law, collecting taxes, and providing security, while Somalia’s government remains weak and divided. Unlike in the past, the group avoided civilian massacres and targeted its efforts on one clear goal—the capture of Mogadishu and the establishment of an Islamic state.

This is not just an extremist movement; this is a power shift in real time.

While Al-Shabaab advances, the Somali government is imploding from within. The administration of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud is not uniting the country—it is tearing it apart.

Relations between Mogadishu and Puntland, as well as Jubaland, have recently deteriorated amid accusations that the president is rewriting the federal constitution to strengthen his own authority.

The fragile federal system is unravelling, with regional states refusing to cooperate, and internal corruption is weakening the military’s ability to fight back. Somalia’s leadership, instead of focusing on the existential threat posed by Al-Shabaab, is consumed by political infighting and power struggles.

Simply put, the country’s leaders are too busy fighting each other to fight Al-Shabaab.

Crisis beyond Somalia

If Mogadishu falls, the consequences will reverberate far beyond Somalia’s borders. Kenya, already a victim of deadly Al-Shabaab attacks, will likely see a new wave of violence along its northeastern border.

Ethiopia, struggling with its own security challenges, will face renewed instability that could further weaken its internal cohesion. Somaliland, as a self-governing and stable entity, sees the rise of Al-Shabaab as a direct threat to its peace and security.

Even the United States and Europe are taking notice—why else would Turkish Airlines and Qatar Airways suspend flights to Mogadishu? They see what Somali leaders refuse to acknowledge: the capital is no longer safe.

The recent visit of Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed should have been a diplomatic milestone. Instead, it became a humiliation for Somalia. Within hours of landing at Aden Adde International Airport, Mogadishu came under mortar attack. This shows that even with maximum security, Mogadishu is too dangerous for foreign leaders.

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Earlier this week, Al Shabaab militants attempted to attack Somalia’s President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud with a bomb targeting his motorcade as it moved through Mogadishu.

Although Al Shabaab frequently carries out attacks in Somalia as part of its long-standing campaign to overthrow the government, the recent attack was the first to directly target the president since 2014, during his first term in office, when the group bombed a hotel where he was speaking.

If Somalia’s capital cannot even protect a visiting head of state and its president, how can it protect itself?

If Al-Shabaab marches into Mogadishu, the scenario will be eerily similar to the Taliban’s takeover of Kabul in 2021. The Somali government could collapse overnight, and Al-Shabaab would declare itself the legitimate ruler of Somalia.

The consequences would be catastrophic—a radical Islamist state in the Horn of Africa, a global safe haven for terrorists, and a humanitarian disaster on an unimaginable scale. The world ignored the warning signs in Afghanistan. Will Somalia suffer the same fate?

Last chance for Somalia

Somalia is running out of time. The fractured federal alliance must be repaired, bringing Puntland and Jubaland back into the fold. The military must be restructured, purging corrupt officers with ties to Al-Shabaab and strengthening national defense. The international community can no longer afford to stand by—it must step in with urgent military and financial support before it is too late.

The Somali people deserve better than a government that is asleep at the wheel while their capital is under siege. If Mogadishu is lost, it will not be because Al-Shabaab was too strong—it will be because Somalia’s leaders were too weak.

The choice is clear: fight for Mogadishu now, or mourn its loss forever.

Adam Daud Ahmed is a political and security analyst in the Horn of Africa.