Analysts weigh in on what’s next for Raila after AUC defeat
Political observers had suggested that Ruto’s support for Raila was part of a broader strategy to ease him out of the local political scene while also appeasing his support bases in anticipation of securing their backing in the future
After facing an unexpected loss despite high hopes of clinching the African Union Commission (AUC) Chairperson seat, the future of veteran opposition leader Raila Odinga is a subject of keen discussion among political observers.
On Sunday, President William Ruto stated that his support for Raila in the AUC chairmanship race was not motivated by political self-interest.
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Speaking in Addis Ababa after Raila’s defeat, Ruto said he backed him because his vision for leading the continental bloc aligned with Kenya’s interests.
"When he (Raila) announced that he wanted to run for the African Union Commission (AUC) chairperson, I told him I would support him. It was not about politics or 2022 or 2027," he said.
Ruto’s remarks followed claims by some political commentators in various forums that his unwavering support for Raila was a strategic move to eliminate strong competition ahead of the 2027 presidential election.
Political analysts who spoke to The Eastleigh Voice predicted that despite the shock defeat, Raila is unlikely to exit Kenya’s political scene anytime soon.
Political commentator Herman Manyora said Raila still has a promising future in politics and could even contest the presidency in 2027.
"He would have a great chance because many would see him as the most likely person to defeat President Ruto. The loss affects Ruto more than Raila. In any case, Raila is no stranger to such setbacks," said Manyora.
Governance specialist and political communication strategist Javas Bigambo echoed this view, suggesting that Odinga’s political influence in Kenya is far from over.
"From the outset, I knew that whether Raila won or lost the AUC election, his interest in Kenyan politics would remain. We now expect him to continue speaking with both sides of the mouth," said Bigambo.
Had Raila won, he would have likely withdrawn from local politics, creating a political vacuum that could have triggered new alignments and realignments.
Political observers had suggested that Ruto’s support for Raila was part of a broader strategy to ease him out of the local political scene while also appeasing his support bases in anticipation of securing their backing in the future. Analysts opined that Raila’s political strongholds were expected to compensate Ruto for the ‘lost’ Mt Kenya vote bloc.
Political observer Mark Bichachi argued that Raila brings significant political capital to any candidate he supports, along with influential regional leaders who play crucial roles in elections.
"If you go to the Coast, (CS Hassan) Joho is there. The same applies to Western, where (CS Wycliffe) Oparanya is highly influential," said Bichachi.
On Monday, Belgut Member of Parliament Nelson Koech suggested that Raila should be integrated into President Ruto’s government following his loss in the AUC chairperson contest.
Speaking on Citizen TV, Koech argued that Raila should be brought on board to offer leadership counsel and support the administration.
"We need to find a structure that accommodates Raila so that he can continue playing his role. I don’t think it’s really about positions for Raila —it’s about the resources and experience he can offer us," Koech noted.
The presidency has remained elusive for Raila throughout his decades-long political career—just as it did for his father, who served as Kenya’s vice president after independence.
Now aged 80, Raila made his fifth attempt at the presidency in the August 2022 elections. However, he previously came close to the top seat when he was appointed prime minister in a coalition government in 2008.
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