Ethiopia

Somalia sends mixed signals with diplomatic visits to Egypt and Ethiopia

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The inclusion of both Egypt and Ethiopia in the peacekeeping mission presents a diplomatic tightrope for Somalia.

On Monday, Somalia dispatched its Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation to Cairo while simultaneously sending his Deputy to Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, sparking speculation over Mogadishu's diplomatic strategy amid the ongoing Nile waters dispute between Egypt and Ethiopia.

Somalia Foreign Minister Ahmed Moalim Fiqi was in Cairo and held talks with his Egypt counterpart Badr Abdelatty while Somalia's Ali Omar, heads to Addis Ababa to strengthen ties under Ankara Declaration.

Egypt and Ethiopia have long been at odds over the use of Nile waters and the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).

Until recently, Somalia had aligned itself with Egypt, formalising this relationship through a tripartite agreement with Eritrea. Analysts viewed this alliance as a coalition of friends united against a common rival—Ethiopia.

However, the Ankara Declaration, brokered by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, which brought Somalia's President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed to the negotiating table, marked a shift in Somalia's alliances. The agreement has seen Mogadishu pivot towards a more neutral stance, potentially straining its ties with Cairo.

The Somali Foreign Minister's visit to Cairo appears to be a conciliatory move aimed at reassuring Egypt of its continued partnership.

Egypt had recently begun sending weapons to Mogadishu, signalling its strategic interest in the relationship. However, Somalia's recent agreement to include Ethiopia in the post-ATMIS deployment—despite previously opposing their involvement—has raised eyebrows in Cairo.

Ethiopia had warned that excluding its forces would jeopardise its national security.

In a joint statement issued Monday, Somalia and Egypt reaffirmed their commitment to strengthening bilateral ties. The ministers emphasised the importance of accelerating the formation of the AU Support and Stabilisation Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), which will replace the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) starting in January 2025.

"We have agreed to elevate our ties to a strategic partnership level," read the statement.

Both sides reiterated their shared commitment to regional peace and security through collaborative efforts under the AUSSOM framework.

The inclusion of both Egypt and Ethiopia in the peacekeeping mission presents a diplomatic tightrope for Somalia.

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