Tensions rise in South Sudan as fragile peace accord teeters on the brink
Amid cabinet reshuffles, arrests of senior officials in Juba, and a resurgence of militia activity in Upper Nile State, the risk of a renewed civil war is rising sharply.
South Sudan's tenuous 2018 peace agreement is under severe strain as political and military tensions flare between President Salva Kiir and First Vice President Riek Machar, rekindling fears of a return to full-scale conflict.
Amid cabinet reshuffles, arrests of senior officials in Juba, and a resurgence of militia activity in Upper Nile State, the risk of a renewed civil war is rising sharply.
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At the centre of the latest crisis is a March 4 attack on a South Sudan People's Defence Force (SSPDF) base in Nasir, a key border town with Ethiopia.
The assault, carried out by the White Army—a Nuer militia linked to Machar—was triggered by contested plans to replace the SSPDF with a mixed force including Agwelek and Abushok militias.
The incident marks a dangerous escalation in a country where nearly 400,000 people perished during a five-year civil war that ostensibly ended with the 2018 Revitalised Peace Agreement.
President Kiir, seeking to calm rising tensions, assured on March 7 that the country "would not revert to war."
Yet his words have done little to stem growing concern in Juba and among regional actors.
Solomon Dersso, founder of Ethiopian think tank Amani Africa, warned: "The situation in South Sudan is escalating dangerously, threatening to unravel the precarious 2018 peace agreement." He called for an urgent high-level intervention to prevent further deterioration.
The African Union's Peace and Security Council (PSC) is now holding its 1265th session, with South Sudan's crisis top of the agenda.
Executive Secretary of IGAD, Workneh Gebeyehu, briefing a recent summit, cautioned that the Nasir clashes are "the latest episode in a series of incidents and cyclic violence pushing South Sudan ever closer to the brink of war."
Compounding matters are confirmed reports of Uganda deploying special forces to Juba—moves the South Sudanese government had earlier denied, yet which display the broader regional anxiety about the country's stability.
As the international community watches with concern, the collapse of the South Sudanese peace deal would have wide-reaching implications.
Beyond the humanitarian toll, the renewed conflict would further destabilise an already volatile region, stretching the capacities of neighbouring states and multilateral organisations.
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