New study estimates Gaza war death toll may exceed 100,000
The entirety of Gaza's population now lives below the poverty line, with per-capita GDP plunging to $161 (Sh20,899), unemployment soaring to 80 per cent, and inflation nearing 240 per cent.
A new study has revealed that Israel's two-year war on Gaza has killed far more Palestinians than most official estimates, with fatalities likely exceeding 100,000 since the conflict began in October 2023.
Research conducted by the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR) in Germany and the Centre for Demographic Studies (CED) in Spain estimates the total death toll in Gaza at between 99,997 and 125,915, with a median figure of over 112,000. This is significantly higher than the roughly 70,000 deaths reported by most media outlets.
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The study drew on multiple public sources, including the Gaza Ministry of Health, the Israeli Information Centre for Human Rights in the Occupied Territories (B'Tselem), the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, the UN Inter-Agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation and the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics.
According to researchers, the wide range of estimates reflects the difficulty of obtaining accurate data from conflict zones.
"The tension between data limitations and the demand for meaningful metrics was the impetus for this study. We demonstrate that these challenges do not have to be mutually exclusive," said Gómez-Ugarte, one of the researchers.
"Our goal is to estimate life expectancy and the losses in life expectancy caused by the Gaza conflict in Palestine in a way that accounts for incomplete or sparse data."
The study also found that the war has taken a severe toll on life expectancy in Gaza, which dropped by 44 per cent in 2023 and 47 per cent in 2024, equivalent to losing more than 34 years in 2023 and over 36 years in 2024 compared with what it would have been without the conflict.
"Our estimates of the impact of war on life expectancy in Gaza and Palestine are significant, but probably represent only a lower limit of the actual mortality burden. Our analysis focuses exclusively on direct, conflict-related deaths," Gómez-Ugarte said.
"The indirect effects of war, which are often greater and more long-lasting, are not quantified in our considerations."
The revelations come just days after a United Nations (UN) report showed how deeply Gaza's economy has been affected by the conflict.
According to the UN Conference on Trade and Development, the entirety of Gaza's population now lives below the poverty line, with per-capita GDP plunging to $161 (Sh20,899), unemployment soaring to 80 per cent, and inflation nearing 240 per cent.
Since the ceasefire between Gaza and Israel went into effect on October 10, reports indicate that violence and fatalities have continued, with hundreds of Palestinians reportedly killed in the weeks following the truce. Both sides have blamed each other for ceasefire violations.
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