Somaliland ties offer new headache for Raila's AUC bid

Faysal Ali Warabe, a presidential candidate in this year's Somaliland poll, has thrown his support behind Kenya’s former premier, Raila Odinga, in the race for chair of the African Union Commission (AUC).

The Sunday endorsement comes at a time when Nairobi has managed to mend relations with Mogadishu.

Faysal, leader of the UCID party, posted his message on his X page:

Excited to express my full support for @RailaOdinga's candidacy as Chairman of the African Union. His vast experience and dedication make him an ideal leader to drive positive change and progress across the continent. #RailaForAUChair"

— Faysal Ali Warabe (@FaisalAliWarabe) March 17, 2024

The former prime minister, in the regional context, is facing competition from Somalia's candidate, former Foreign Minister Fawzia Adam Yusuf, in the race for the coveted post.

Notably, Raila has, over the years, maintained strong ties to Hargeisa, the capital of Somaliland, a breakaway region of Somalia, and has previously advocated for Somaliland's statehood. His influence in Hargeisa may encourage Mogadishu to continue its bid and not withdraw its candidate in his favour.

In a 2020 meeting in Nairobi, Raila discussed Somaliland's independence with President Muse Bihi, emphasising the need for the African Union (AU) and the United Nations (UN) to recognise Somaliland as an independent nation.

Raila, who was then serving as the AU’s High Representative for Infrastructure, largely a ceremonial role, said it was impossible to reunite Somalia and Somaliland.

“The AU needs to wake up to the reality that it is not going to be possible again to bring these two countries together and recognise them as two separate countries,” he said at the Villa Rosa Kempinski in Nairobi during a reception dinner for the Somaliland leader.

The veteran Kenyan politician, who leads the opposition's Azimio la Umoja coalition and the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), said he did not regret issuing the same remarks earlier while in the UK.

“I have talked in the UN, and I have talked in the London Chatham House. I said, and I have no regret, and I will say it again, that Somaliland is a reality the world has to live with,” Raila told the audience in Nairobi.

The opposition leader added that Somaliland will continue to progress without depending on Somalia.

Raila, at the time, argued the continental body should step in and open a conversation about Somaliland, the same way it handled the matter of the disputed Western Sahara territory with Morocco.

Past tensions

During former Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta's term, collaboration between Nairobi and Hargeisa attracted unfriendly setbacks from Mogadishu, which ended its diplomatic ties with Kenya.

Former President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo was the leader of the government in Mogadishu at the time.

Nairobi remained unshaken by the escalating disputes and, in December 2020, rolled out the red carpet for Muse, signalling a willingness to engage despite the challenges.

The visit by the leader of the self-declared region came days after Mogadishu had expelled the then-Kenyan top diplomat in Mogadishu, Maj. General (Rtd) Lucas Tumbo, over continuous ‘interference’ in its internal affairs.

Mogadishu had accused Nairobi of meddling with its elections by pressuring the regional leader of Jubaland, Ahmed Mohamed Madobe, to walk back on a poll agreement.

This also marked the first official visit to Nairobi by Bihi, who came to power in 2017.

Although Hargeisa doesn’t vote at the AU because it is not a member state, it views Raila as an ally, and if he is elected to the AUC, its quest for statehood will gain momentum.

The camaraderie between Raila and Somalilanders did not start today.

In April 2022, when Hargeisa’s market went up in flames, Raila tweeted, “The scenes coming out of Hargeisa’s open market inferno, that is the mainstay of their economy, are gut-wrenching. My prayers go out to the people of Somaliland. The regional and global communities must urgently pull together to help you rebuild your city. You will rise again!”

In 2013, Raila had a brief meeting with then-Somaliland President Ahmed Mohamed Mohamoud Silanyo at Heathrow Airport’s VIP lounge.

These ties were rekindled in December 2018 during the Somaliland Investment Conference held in Nairobi.

According to initial arrangements, Raila was supposed to attend the event as a chief guest but opted out at the eleventh hour. He later met the Somaliland delegation in private ahead of the 2018 event.