Upcoming by-elections set to prove 2027 litmus test for Kenya's political bigwigs

Major political parties are set to face an acid test in the forthcoming by-elections, where measuring of political muscles, tactics, and financial prowess will be witnessed ahead of the 2027 General Election.

Big parties such as former Prime Minister Raila Odinga’s Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) Party and President William Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA) Party are already burning the midnight oil on how to grab most seats in the contests that promise to be knife-edge.

In Homa Bay County’s Kasipul Constituency, ODM is already experiencing a headache as it plans to identify a suitable candidate who will fly their flag in the Kasipul by-election.

At least three aspirants have announced that they will vie for the seat after the death of former legislator Charles Ong’ondo Were on April 30, 2025. The contenders are businessmen Philip Aroko and Robert Riaga alias Money Bior, alongside Ong’ondo’s son Boyd Were.

All of them have hit the campaign trail and are busy engaging voters to support them ahead of the mini-poll. The by-election will be conducted on a date that will be announced by the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC).

Independent candidate

Riaga chose to contest as an independent candidate and has already branded himself with blue colours. Aroko and Were are eyeing the ODM party ticket for a start before they go to the ballot.

Both of them are fighting tooth and nail to be nominated by the Raila-led party, as it commands a large political following in the region and its candidates are more likely to win in an election.

ODM has different methods of identifying candidates ahead of the election, including direct nomination, secret ballot, or letting delegates choose a flagbearer.

The constituency remained leaderless following the brutal gunning down of its MP Charles Were. Immediately after Were was laid to rest, ODM National chairperson Gladys Wanga camped in Kasipul to drum up support for Were junior. But there was an uproar from some party members who wanted her to stay out of the politics of the region.

DCP candidates

Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua-led Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP) have already presented two candidates, Aden Mohamed for Banisa Constituency and Edgar Busiega for Malava Constituency, during an event at its headquarters in Nairobi.

“These are young people. DCP is a party that believes in nurturing young leadership, and the party leader and the NEC have committed to setting aside resources to ensure that DCP wins more than 50 per cent of the available by-election seats,” DCP deputy party leader Cleophas Malala said during their unveiling.

The Banisa and Malava by-elections were triggered by the deaths of Banisa MP Kulow Maalim Hassan in March 2023 and Malava MP Moses Injendi earlier this year.

The unveiling came as the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC), now fully constituted, prepares to conduct 22 long-delayed by-elections. These include six National Assembly seats, one Senate position and 15 Member of County Assembly (MCA) slots. The delays were attributed to the previous lack of quorum at the IEBC following the expiry of several commissioners’ terms.

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• Mbeere North by-election
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• Malava by-election
• Upcoming by-elections set to prove 2027 litmus test for Kenya's political bigwigs
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“As DCP, we have decided that we are going to field candidates in all the by-elections in Kenya. We want to urge the IEBC commissioners to hasten the process of ensuring that we have the respective pending by-elections,” Malala said.

DCP also plans to field candidates in constituencies such as Kasipul and Ugunja, which fell vacant after MP Opiyo Wandayi was appointed Energy Cabinet Secretary following the formation of a broad-based government.

Consensus retreats

Ruto’s party, UDA, on the other hand, is trying to capture the seats through organising consensus retreats of top aspirants.

Last weekend, top UDA officials, led by party chair Cecily Mbarire and Public Service CS Geoffrey Ruku, held a closed-door retreat in Naivasha to ease tensions and lay the groundwork for a peaceful, fair nomination process.

Nine out of the 12 candidates eyeing the Mbeere North parliamentary seat are seeking the UDA ticket, setting the stage for a high-stakes nomination race that could shape the party’s political influence in Embu County.

Amid the rising competition, top UDA officials—led by party chair Cecily Mbarire and Public Service Cabinet Secretary Geoffrey Ruku—held a closed-door retreat in Naivasha. The two-day meeting aimed to ease tensions and chart a path for a peaceful and fair nomination process.

The retreat brought together all UDA aspirants for the vacant seat and focused on promoting dialogue around party unity, development priorities, and effective service delivery.

Pressing needs

Leaders used the forum to deliberate on the constituency’s pressing needs, review ongoing projects, and propose solutions to persistent challenges affecting residents.

“The party celebrates the spirit of unity and focus that defined this retreat and looks forward to walking this journey together with the people, for the people,” read the statement signed by Cecily Mbarire, Josiah Thiriku, and Leonard Wamuthende.

The Mbeere North seat became vacant recently, prompting a rush of hopefuls keen to run on the ruling party’s ticket.

Political commentator Samuel Owida told The Eastleigh Voice that the mini-polls hold great significance for major political players, as they provide an opportunity to assess strengths and weaknesses across different regions.

“Those eyeing the presidency will want to gauge their influence in specific areas of the country through these by-elections. That’s why political outfits take mini-polls so seriously, sometimes even collaborating to maximise their chances,” Owida noted.