Expatriate exodus reshapes Nairobi housing market, driving rents down and property prices up
A surge in expatriate departures following aid cuts has eased rental prices across Nairobi, yet strong local demand continues to push up the cost of detached homes in prime suburbs and satellite towns.
A wave of expatriate departures following recent aid cuts has created fresh opportunities for Kenyan renters, particularly those seeking space and privacy in high-end detached homes.
According to the latest HassConsult Property Price Index covering the three months to September, this trend contributed to a 1.6 per cent drop in rental prices during the quarter and a 1.3 per cent decline year-on-year.
More To Read
- Kenya residential land market cools as satellite towns and suburbs see slower price growth
- Airbnb boom drives up Nairobi rents by 10 per cent, leaves long-term tenants struggling for space - report
- Kenya’s property market outpaces global giants in investment gains - report
- Demand for standalone homes drives fastest property price growth in 18 months
- Nairobi property prices surge as demand for standalone houses increases
“The fall is being driven by changes in the detached house market, where the ending of large aid flows into the country have prompted expatriate departures that have reduced demand for rented detached houses,” the report reads.
The surge in detached house buying was concentrated in specific areas, with prices continuing to rise significantly in Runda, Ridgeways, Loresho, Lavington, Karen, and Muthaiga suburbs, as well as in the satellite towns of Athi River, Ruiru, Tigoni, Juja, and Kiserian.
However, prices fell in several other parts of the city and its surroundings.
A detached house is a standalone residential building not physically connected to any other dwelling. It sits on its own parcel of land and is surrounded by private outdoor space, such as a yard or garden.
Property prices
Despite the rental slowdown, overall property prices rose by a modest 1.1 per cent during the quarter—a slowdown compared to earlier in the year—bringing the annual increase to 8.2 per cent.
The performance, the property firm notes, reflects the typical August lull, alongside shifting demand dynamics across different property segments.
“All segments of the market delivered sales price growth in the third quarter, reflecting the market's solid foundation in cash-driven demand, but it was a subdued quarter of demand overall, as middle-class incomes remained under pressure,” said Sakina Hassanali, Co-CEO and Creative Director at HassConsult.
Among the standout performers were Runda, where detached house prices rose four per cent in the quarter and 15.3 per cent over the year, and Athi River, which saw a 4.3 per cent quarterly rise and a 4.9 per cent annual gain.
Other suburbs such as Ridgeways, Loresho, Lavington, Karen, and Muthaiga also recorded notable growth.
Notably, the report observes that in previous periods of expatriate exit—such as in 2012 and during the Covid-19 pandemic—rising vacancies led to falling rental and sales prices as landlords sold their properties.
“This time,” the report notes, “the scale of local demand for detached houses has continued to drive up sales prices, even as rentals fall.”
For apartments, variable price growth driven by new stock entering the market delivered overall price stability.
Rents rose fastest in areas such as Parklands and Riverside, with Parklands rents increasing by 12.5 per cent over the last year, driven by newer properties. In contrast, rents and apartment prices in Upper Hill have dipped, reflecting the prevalence of older stock.
Top Stories Today
