Trump reignites debate over Ethiopia’s Nile dam, Egyptian analysts see opportunity for resolution

Egyptian analysts have welcomed recent remarks by US President Donald Trump, who expressed a willingness to help resolve the longstanding dispute between Egypt and Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).

The dam, situated on the Blue Nile, has been a source of tension between the two countries since construction began in 2011.

The Blue Nile is a key tributary of the Nile River and Egypt’s primary source of freshwater.

Speaking from the White House during a meeting with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, President Trump underscored the critical role of the Nile River in safeguarding Egypt’s water security.

“I think if I were Egypt, I want to have water in the Nile, and we are working on that,” he stated, signalling his understanding of Egypt’s dependence on the river.

River Nile flow

Trump also criticised the GERD for reducing the flow of the River Nile, noting that Egypt relies on the river for more than 97 per cent of its water needs.

He affirmed that his administration would continue supporting efforts to achieve a peaceful, negotiated resolution between Egypt and Ethiopia over the dam's use and management.

His remarks come amid renewed attention to the dispute, which remains unresolved despite years of diplomatic engagement involving Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan.

This is not the first time Trump has addressed the issue. In earlier comments, he claimed that previous US administrations had funded the Ethiopian dam and criticised its impact on water availability for Egypt.

Water security

His latest statements have reignited international focus on the GERD project and its broader implications for regional cooperation and water security.

The GERD has long been a flashpoint between Ethiopia and Egypt.

Ethiopia views the dam as crucial to its development and energy goals, asserting its sovereign right to harness the river's resources. Egypt, however, insists on a binding legal agreement to regulate the dam’s filling and operation, to ensure it does not harm downstream water supplies.

Negotiations between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan have taken place over the past decade through various forums, including African Union-led talks.

Other Topics To Read

• Ethiopia
• Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam
• River Nile
• Blue Nile
• GERD
• US President Donald Trump
• Water security
• Trump reignites debate over Ethiopia’s Nile dam
• Egyptian analysts see opportunity for resolution

Despite these efforts, a final agreement remains elusive.

Egyptian officials have accused Ethiopia of refusing to make meaningful compromises and breaching the 2015 Declaration of Principles—a document signed by all three countries to guide future cooperation.

Tensions escalated in December 2023 when Egypt withdrew from the talks, citing a lack of progress and accusing Ethiopia of deliberately stalling negotiations to proceed with the dam's construction and operation without consensus.

The withdrawal marked a major diplomatic breakdown and heightened fears of potential conflict over shared water resources.

Trump’s renewed interest in the issue has been welcomed by Egyptian analysts and foreign policy experts, who see his involvement as a possible catalyst for renewed dialogue.

Commentators in Cairo hope that international mediation—particularly from the US—can help bridge the divide and lead to a lasting agreement that safeguards the interests of all Nile Basin nations.

The GERD remains a critical issue for Egypt, which continues to face mounting water scarcity and relies heavily on the uninterrupted flow of the River Nile for its survival.