Job prospects dim despite business optimism, CBK survey shows

Job seekers face a bleak few months ahead, even as business leaders forecast overall improvement in economic activity.

The latest Central Bank of Kenya's (CBK) CEO Survey shows expectations are high for growth across most business activity indicators in the third quarter of the year, except for the number of full-time employees.

“All indicators of business activity show improvement except the number of full-time employees, which remained largely unchanged,” CBK said.

The apex bank, therefore, reckons that the number of full-time employees will remain largely unchanged during the period under review.

This extends the stark reality in the job market that has persisted since the start of the year.

In its previous May survey, the lender had similarly revealed that full-time employment remained largely unchanged across sectors in the second quarter compared to the first.

Notably, on the business front, a greater number of respondents expect improved business activity in Q3 compared to the previous quarter.

“The balance of opinion for the 2025, Q3 expectations shows enhanced business activity relative to the baseline.”

However, a comparison of the survey’s outcome for 2025, Q3 expectations relative to 2025, Q2 shows slower activity in the July Survey relative to May, although indicators of activity are better compared to the baseline.

Demand orders, growth in sales and production volumes are lower relative to May, reflective of the muted consumer demand.

Prices of goods and services bought are expected to be lower, supported by low inflation, while prices of goods sold are impacted by muted demand and stiff competition, resulting in firms discounting their prices to retain customers.

However, concerns about price developments in future remain, following the recent increase in energy prices and the impact of higher global tariffs, which have impacted on prices of raw materials.

The survey further reveals that a majority of the business heads anticipate being affected by the recent US trade tariffs and policy changes.

This through higher import costs for inputs and finished goods, reduced export earnings to the US after the expiry of AGOA in September, and increased production costs from inflationary pressures.

CEOs also expect lower consumer demand due to reduced disposable incomes from declining profits and job losses, as well as secondary effects on local businesses reliant on affected clients.

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