Most Kenyans expect Raila to run for President in 2027 - TIFA poll
The findings come amid growing uncertainty over Raila's political future after joining forces with President William Ruto in forming the broad-based government.
A majority of Kenyans believe ODM leader Raila Odinga will return to the opposition and run for president in 2027, according to a new national poll by TIFA.
The findings come amid growing uncertainty over his political future after joining forces with President William Ruto in forming the broad-based government.
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The TIFA survey, released on Wednesday, shows that 28 per cent of respondents expect Raila to rejoin the opposition and contest for the top seat. Meanwhile, 23 per cent believe he will support President Ruto’s re-election bid, 18 per cent think he will back another opposition candidate, and 14 per cent say he will retire from active politics. Another 16 per cent are unsure of his plans.
The poll highlights how Raila’s next political move could reshape Kenya’s political scene as the country heads toward the 2027 General Election.
Views on the broad-based government are sharply divided. The survey shows that 54 per cent of Kenyans are against the political arrangement between Ruto and Raila. Only 22 per cent support it, while 25 per cent remain undecided.
Confidence in the 2027 election is also low. Only 20 per cent of Kenyans believe it will be free and fair.
TIFA noted a clear split along political lines, with 38 per cent of those supporting the broad-based government expressing confidence in the election process.
In contrast, just 13 per cent of those opposed to the alliance believe the polls will be credible. Half of all respondents said they have no confidence at all in the fairness of the next election.
Opposition to the alliance is strongest in Mt Kenya and Lower Eastern regions, while support is highest in Central Rift and Nyanza. TIFA attributed the growing opposition largely to frustration with the economy.
The survey, conducted from May 11 to May 15 among 1,530 respondents across nine regions, found that 75 per cent of Kenyans say their personal financial situation has worsened since the 2022 election.
Public mood about the country’s direction has also declined. Only 14 per cent believe Kenya is headed in the right direction, a sharp drop from 49 per cent in September 2023. Three-quarters of Kenyans feel the country is on the wrong path.
The rising cost of living was cited as the main reason for the negative outlook by 45 per cent of respondents. Other major concerns include unemployment, corruption, and poor governance.
The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 per cent.
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