IGAD climate centre predicts below-average rains in Eastern and Northern Kenya
Counties in the west could exceed 300 millimetres of rain, contrasting sharply with the less than 30 per cent chance of surpassing this threshold in the north and east.
Most parts of Kenya are likely to experience below-normal rainfall during the October to December short rains, as a weak La Niña pattern develops, according to the latest forecast. The rains are expected to be delayed, raising concerns over agricultural activities and water availability across the country.
The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) says that Eastern and Northern Kenya will generally be drier and hotter than usual, while Western regions are likely to receive sufficient rainfall.
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Counties in the west could exceed 300 millimetres of rain, contrasting sharply with the less than 30 per cent chance of surpassing this threshold in the north and east.
The short rains are a critical part of Kenya’s agricultural calendar, contributing up to 70 per cent of the annual rainfall in some areas.
A weak performance during this season can disrupt planting schedules, reduce crop yields, and strain water resources.
The technical statement was issued at the 71st Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum in Nairobi.
It indicated a 55 per cent probability that Central and Eastern Kenya will record below-average rainfall.
“Analysis of predictions from seven Global Producing Centres, tailored for the region, indicates an elevated likelihood of below-normal rainfall in OND 2025 across Eastern Kenya,” ICPAC said.
The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has also highlighted that a weak La Niña is likely to reduce rainfall in the greater Horn of Africa.
In addition, a negative Indian Ocean Dipole is developing, which normally suppresses rainfall over Eastern Africa during the short rains.
“Overall, the SON (September-November) 2025 rainfall outlook reflects a La Niña-influenced pattern, with suppressed rainfall over the central and eastern Pacific,” WMO said on Monday.
ICPAC’s seasonal forecast predicts a delayed start of rains in Eastern and Central Kenya, while Western areas may experience an early to normal onset.
Delays in rainfall can force farmers to wait longer to plant or risk sowing in dry soil, affecting harvests and livelihoods.
Temperatures are also expected to rise, particularly in the east.
“Probabilities of warmer-than-average temperatures are highest over eastern parts of Kenya,” ICPAC said, emphasising the likelihood of hot and dry conditions in already vulnerable regions.
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