Governance worsens in half of Africa's countries amid deepening security crisis - report

Nearly half of African citizens are living in a country where governance has worsened over the past decade as deteriorating security erodes progress, the 2024 Ibrahim Index of African Governance (IIAG) now says.

The new sobering report notes that after years of progress, Africa's overall governance has stalled, grinding to a halt in 2022, for almost half of the continent's population due to a deepening security crisis and shrinking democracy.

Twenty-one countries hosting 47.9 per cent of the population recorded worse overall governance levels in 2023 compared to where they were in 2014. Eleven of them recorded increasing deteriorating levels over the second part of the decade.

These include; Botswana, Burkina Faso, Eswatini, Guinea, Mauritius, Mozambique, Nigeria, Senegal, Sudan, Tunisia, and Uganda all of which play home to almost a third (29.3 per cent) of the population.

"This concerning overall trend is driven by the ongoing deterioration of the Security & Rule of Law dimension, which has been the most deteriorated category since 2014 as well as, to a lesser extent, by the irregular trajectory of participation, Rights & Inclusion, between 2014 and 2023. Within these categories, deterioration is worst in both Security & Safety and Participation, while Rights and Accountability & Transparency have also declined, but to a lesser extent," the report shows.

Angola, Benin, Djibouti, Kenya, Liberia, Mauritania, Seychelles, Sierra Leone and Tanzania were ranked as slowing in improvement

Algeria, Cabo Verde, Central African Republic, Chad, Ethiopia, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea-Bissau, Rwanda, São Tomé and Príncipe, Zimbabwe were ranked as having warning signs as Cameroon, Comoros, DR Congo, Mali, Namibia, Niger and South Africa recorded slowing deterioration.

Those that ranked positively included; Congo Republic, Côte d'Ivoire, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Gabon, Libya, Madagascar, Malawi, Morocco, Somalia, Togo and Zambia which recorded increasing improvement and Burundi, Lesotho and South Sudan that are said to be bouncing back.

Seychelles has overtaken Mauritius in 2020, moving into the 1st rank. Seychelles is both the best-performing and most improved country in the whole continent.

Kenya's ranking

It is followed by Mauritius, Cape Verde, South Africa, Botswana, Namibia, Ghana, Morocco and Tunisia with Kenya ranked tenth.

In 2014, Kenya ranked number 12, an indicator of its slowed improvement over the last decade.

President William Ruto addressing a meeting on “Multilateralism Works: Leadership and Sustaining the HIV Response to 2030 and Beyond” in New York on September 24, 2024. (Photo: PCS)

It was however noted as having the most significant improvement made in Infrastructure over the decade, mainly due to advancements in Access to Energy and Internet & Computers.

Decent Housing performance has also more than doubled over the past decade increasing by points.

It also ranked 6th most improved country in Inclusion and Equality with an increase in Equal Socioeconomic Opportunity.

"However, Kenya has strongly declined in security and safety, particularly in the Absence of Violence against Civilians indicator, which plummeted since 2022," adds the report.

On its part, neighbouring Ethiopia improved slightly in overall governance since 2014, Performing slightly under the African average but ranked as the second most deteriorated country in armed conflict which the report notes impacted the country's overall progress.

"Progress was achieved in 12 out of 16 sub-categories while Security and Safety massively deteriorated. Ethiopia's two most declined indicators are the Absence of Armed Conflict and the Absence of Violence against Civilians, in the former, Ethiopia is the second most declined country after Burkina Faso and ranks in the bottom five. Both indicators have deteriorated even more rapidly since 2019, in line with the escalation of violent conflict within the country since 2020. On the other hand, the country has made remarkable progress in Political Power and Representation of Women and Regional Integration. It is the most improved country for both indicators, especially since 2018," adds the report.

On its part, Somalia ranked as the third most improved country in overall governance but declined in Security and Safety between 2014 and 2023.

The largest deterioration across the continent over the last decade was found to have taken place in Comoros, Tunisia, Mali, Mauritius, Burkina Faso, Botswana, Namibia., DR Congo, Niger and Eswatini.

On the other hand, the most improved were led by Seychelles, followed by Gambia, Somalia. Sierra Leone, Angola. Morocco, Togo, Cote d'Ivoire, Mauritania and Djibouti respectively.

The IIAG report has been published annually over the last decade after an assessment of governance performance in each of the 54 countries on the continent.

"One of the most striking aspects of this report is the gap between governance improvements and the perceptions of Africa's citizens. Even as governments make advances in areas like infrastructure and economic opportunities, many people in Africa feel left behind, perceiving a lack of tangible improvements in their daily lives or at least unmet expectations. We must work harder to ensure that progress is felt in the everyday lives of our people and better reported when that is the case. Because unmet expectations, especially for the young people, fuel frustration and anger, the best triggers for unrest and conflict," Mo Ibrahim, the Founder and Chair of the Mo Ibrahim Foundation (MIF) notes.

He also notes some strikingly successful trajectories, and concerning warning signs.

"Indeed, the deteriorations seen in Sudan, in countries where coups have taken place and in the DRC, Tunisia and Mauritius are concerning. But other countries, such as Morocco, Seychelles, Cote d'Ivoire, Benin and Angola have made substantial strides over the 2014-2023 decade," he adds.