How Raila's AU election could reshape local politics 

The announcement by Azimio leader Raila Odinga declaring his intention to contest for the African Union Commission chairperson position has once again re-ignited debate on what his exit from the local political scene could mean and the possible political re-alignments that his election to the position may cause.

Odinga on Thursday formally announced his interest in succeeding outgoing AU Commission chairperson Moussa Faki Mahamat whose term in office comes to an end this year, setting the stage for talks over what his election will mean to his supporters, political rivals, and the country as a whole.

If elected to the AU position, Odinga – often referred to as the doyen of Kenyan politics – will be barred from engaging in local politics or political talks due to the status of the seat, virtually locking him out of political engagements in the country and the region.

The ODM party leader will also need the backing of his political archrival, President William Ruto to vie for the seat, a move that many pundits say may be viewed as a possible handshake between the two leaders and which may in effect re-shape politics in the country moving forward.

Already, Odinga has received the backing of some of President Ruto's closest allies like Public Service Cabinet Secretary Moses Kuria who on Friday said that the ODM party leader was the best candidate for the position.

Kuria, in a tweet, said that the opposition leader was the best choice that the continent had for the position, describing him as a friend and a wonderful soul.

"With the incoming chair of the Africa Union Commission, Africa will never be the same again. Super friend and a wonderful soul," Kuria said on Friday about his endorsement of Odinga for the position.

The endorsement by Kuria came just hours after Prime Cabinet Secretary and Foreign Affairs Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi on Thursday told an AU meeting that the East Africa Community was ready to take up the commission chair position.

Mudavadi, who spoke during a media briefing on the sidelines of the ongoing 44th Ordinary Session of the AU's Executive Council of Foreign Affairs Ministers, said that the East African region is ripe and it will front a candidate for the position.

"South, Central and West Africa have had a share in serving as chair at various times since 2002. East and North Africa are yet to have that opportunity," Mudavadi said.

"We shall be putting forward a substantial case as East Africa through key consultations amongst the East Africa Member States when we settle on our candidate," he added.

Aside from the possible rapprochement with the Kenya Kwanza administration, the exit of Odinga from local politics in the country is also likely to leave a leadership within the opposition and his Azimio alliance and the ODM party.

Political analyst Gitile Naituli argues that by taking up the AU Commission chairperson position, Odinga's participation in local politics may be limited.

This, he says, could lead to possible rivalries and even re-alignments within the Azimio and the ODM party.

"Of course, the exit of Odinga from the local politics is likely to create some vacuum. The AU commission chairperson position is a non-partisan position that requires the holder of the office to delink themselves from local and regional politics, and that is what we are likely to witness with Odinga," Prof Naituli told Eastleigh Voice.

Both the Azimio coalition and the ODM party have for the last few months been embroiled in internal politics revolving around the 2027 succession.

Within the ODM party, talks over the 2027 succession politics have already gathered steam with former Mombasa governor Hassan Joho early this week declaring his intention to take on Odinga for the party presidential ticket.

Over the past few months, the Azimio coalition has witnessed a heightened debate over the nomination of its presidential candidate. Odinga has been pitted against other coalition principals, such as the leader of the Wiper party, Kalonzo Musyoka, Martha Karua of Narc-Kenya, Eugene Wamalwa of DAP-K, and the Jubilee party.

However, some of Odinga's supporters, like as ODM secretary-general Edwin Sifuna, contend that the Orange party leader's appointment to the AU post might not have a significant impact on the group, the Azimio coalition, or opposition politics.

"Raila has held continental positions before including at the AU. We did not see any difference in his politics or the opposition's politics. As a party, we congratulate him for the decision to go for the seat and wish him well," Sifuna said.