Met warns of heavy rains, flood risks in central highlands, western and coastal Kenya

Kenyans should brace for a week of mixed weather, with showers expected in Nairobi, western Kenya, and coastal counties, while northern and ASAL regions remain largely dry.

The Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD), in its forecast for September 16–22, said most parts of the country will remain sunny and dry, but certain regions will experience rainfall that may disrupt daily life and agricultural activities.

The department noted that showers are likely in parts of the Central Highlands, including Nairobi, the Lake Victoria Basin, Rift Valley, Western Kenya, and the Coastal strip. Counties such as Nyeri, Nyandarua, Murang’a, Kirinyaga, Kwale, and Kilifi may record rainfall exceeding 100mm, raising the risk of flooding and waterlogging in low-lying areas.

Western Kenya and areas around Lake Victoria are expected to see some of the heaviest rainfall, with Kakamega, Kisumu, Siaya, Migori, Homa Bay, Vihiga, Busia, Bungoma, and Kericho projected to receive between 20mm and 70mm.

The meteorological department warned that heavier downpours in parts of these counties could “trigger flash floods, affecting transport, agriculture and daily routines.” Farmers and residents have been urged to prepare for disruptions and safeguard property.

In the Central Highlands and parts of the Rift Valley, moderate rainfall is anticipated, benefiting agricultural activities. Nakuru, Bomet, Nyandarua, Nyeri, Kiambu, Murang’a, Kirinyaga, and Embu are expected to record totals of 10mm to 50mm.

Heavier rainfall

Areas around the Aberdare Ranges and Mount Kenya may see heavier rainfall exceeding 70mm, potentially causing localised flooding and minor landslides. Authorities have been urged to monitor landslide-prone zones, while farmers are encouraged to take advantage of the rains for planting short-term crops.

Along the Coastal counties, widespread rainfall is forecast, with Kwale, Mombasa, Kilifi, and Tana River receiving significant amounts. Certain areas, particularly southern Kwale and parts of Kilifi, could exceed 100mm over the week, creating a heightened risk of flooding in low-lying and poorly drained areas. Residents have been urged to stay alert and take necessary precautions.

North-eastern and parts of Eastern Kenya, including Garissa, Wajir, Mandera, Kitui, and Makueni, will experience light to moderate rainfall, mostly below 20mm, although isolated pockets could receive up to 50mm.

“These rains are not expected to cause flooding but will provide relief to pastoral communities facing water scarcity,” the weatherman said.

In Northern Kenya and Arid and Semi-Arid Lands (ASAL) regions, including Turkana, Marsabit, Samburu, and parts of Isiolo, rainfall will remain minimal, generally below 10mm. A few scattered showers may occur, but they will not significantly impact water availability, leaving existing scarcity concerns largely unchanged.

KMD has warned that heavy rains in highland areas such as Kericho, Nyandarua, and Murang’a may lead to road disruptions, mudslides, and limited accessibility to remote regions. Farmers in the Central Highlands, Rift Valley, and Western Kenya are encouraged to maximise the benefits of the rains for planting and other agricultural activities.

The department stressed the importance of community preparedness, particularly in flood-prone zones, and urged local authorities to implement precautionary measures. Members of the public are advised to stay updated on daily forecasts, as weather conditions can change rapidly.

Meanwhile, daytime temperatures during the week are expected to rise above 30°C in the Coastal, North-eastern, and North-western regions, while chilly nights with lows below 10°C are anticipated in parts of the Central Highlands, Central Rift Valley, and areas around Mount Kilimanjaro.

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Strong southerly to south-easterly winds exceeding 25 knots (12.86 meters per second) are expected over the Coast, Kenya’s territorial waters, the South-eastern lowlands, and parts of North-eastern and North-western Kenya.

In a review of the previous week, KMD reported that the highest 24-hour rainfall was 67.3mm at Khalaba Station in Bungoma on September 8; the highest daily maximum temperature was 38.6°C at Mandera on the same day; and the lowest daily minimum temperature was 6.1°C at Nyahururu.