Broad-based government gains 7 per cent support but faces rising opposition - TIFA
While some gains have been achieved, the survey suggests that many Kenyans are increasingly cautious about the coalition’s long-term impact.
Support for the broad-based government led by President William Ruto and ODM leader Raila Odinga has grown, according to a recent national survey, but opposition remains dominant.
The TIFA poll conducted between August 23 and September 3, 2025, shows that backing for the coalition increased from 22 per cent in May to 29 per cent in the latest survey period, signalling a modest rise in public approval.
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The survey, which sampled 2,023 Kenyans across all 47 counties, also highlights persistent scepticism.
“The broad-based government faces a legitimacy challenge, as opposition is not only dominant but also growing. Although support has inched up slightly, it remains far overshadowed by those opposed, and indecision is declining as citizens become more decisive in their stance,” TIFA notes.
Opposition to the coalition has risen sharply, from 54 per cent in May to 64 per cent in August-September, indicating increasing public dissatisfaction with the arrangement despite relative calm in the political environment.
The broad-based government, formalised on March 7, 2025, at the Kenyatta International Convention Centre (KICC), was intended to stabilise the country and address growing discontent with the Kenya Kwanza administration.
While some gains have been achieved, the survey suggests that many Kenyans are increasingly cautious about the coalition’s long-term impact.
“However popular these two leaders have been, this arrangement has engendered some disquiet among their respective core support bases, for various reasons, and with the next general election now less than two years away, its evolving impact is attracting serious attention across the political landscape,” TIFA adds.
The survey further highlights the political dynamics resulting from the coalition.
Raila’s ODM Party has emerged as a key beneficiary, with several of its leaders appointed to cabinet positions, principal secretary roles, heads of parastatals, ambassadorships, and parliamentary committee chair positions.
This reallocation of political influence has, however, created a vacuum in opposition ranks, giving rise to new factions, including the United Opposition and the Third Force, comprised of younger leaders advocating for change.
The interviews were conducted across 9 zones: Nairobi, Northern, Nyanza, South Rift, Western, Mt Kenya, Central Rift, Coast and Lower Eastern
The survey has a margin of error of +/- 2.17 per cent.
It was conducted through face-to-face (household-based) interviews, primarily in Kiswahili, with some in English.
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