How Trump’s 90-day foreign aid suspension could disrupt Kenya’s development programmes
The Aid Data Network estimates that US government aid contributes approximately $1.68 billion (Sh252 billion) annually to Kenya’s economy.
Kenya might soon experience disruptions to key development programmes following a decision by US President Donald Trump to suspend all foreign assistance for 90 days.
Signed on his first day in office, the Executive Order aims to give the Trump administration time to review existing foreign aid policies and ensure they align with his broader foreign policy objectives.
The Executive Order, which was signed on Monday, outlines Trump’s concerns about the effectiveness of US foreign aid.
Trump argued that the foreign aid industry and bureaucracy often fail to serve American interests, and in some cases, they promote ideas that are counterproductive to global peace and stability.
“It is the policy of the United States that no further US foreign assistance shall be disbursed in a manner that is not fully aligned with the foreign policy of the President of the United States,” the Executive Order reads.
The President further stated that US foreign aid has at times destabilised world peace by encouraging actions in foreign countries that contradict efforts to foster stable and harmonious international relations.
While it remains unclear how much funding will be affected by the decision, many programmes, including those already appropriated by Congress, will still be obligated to disburse funds if they have not yet been spent.
However, future assistance will be closely scrutinised to ensure it aligns with the president’s policies.
Funding cuts
The move has raised concerns in Kenya, where US aid has significantly contributed to the development of sectors such as health, agriculture, and security. The suspension could lead to funding cuts, potentially stalling ongoing projects, especially those run by US-funded non-governmental organisations (NGOs).
The Aid Data Network estimates that US government aid contributes approximately $1.68 billion (Sh252 billion) annually to Kenya’s economy.
This includes $1 billion (Sh129.4 billion) in direct aid. The US government has also been a leading provider of assistance to international organisations such as the United Nations, the World Health Organisation (WHO), and various donor funds operating in Kenya.
This also includes Sh130 billion in direct bilateral and multilateral aid and Sh88.1 billion in indirect contributions from supportive policies.
Over 20 US agencies, including the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), have also been instrumental in driving Kenya’s growth, especially in sectors like agriculture, food security, education, and health. USAID has also contributed to efforts in peacebuilding, devolution, and economic growth.
As a result, Kenya could feel considerable effects from the suspension of foreign aid.
In comparison, Israel, Jordan, and Egypt are among the largest recipients of US foreign aid, receiving Sh429 billion, Sh221 billion, and Sh195 billion, respectively, annually.
Foreign policy analysts, however, are sceptical that President Trump will undo the diplomatic ties and interests established during the Biden administration, noting the long-standing, mutually beneficial relationship between Kenya and the US.
No free gift
“There is no free gift; they’ll calculate what they’ll get from Kenya, and they’ll let that one slide – a small price for what they get from Kenya,” Prof Macharia Munene, a foreign policy analyst told Citizen TV.
“Any social aid that has no economic returns, he will cut off. When President Biden came in, he did sideline the economic agreement between Kenya and the US. I think Trump will have to look at that,” Gordon K’acholla, another foreign policy analyst said.
In addition to the aid review, Trump has made other significant policy decisions, including withdrawing the US from the Paris Climate Agreement and potentially limiting climate funding for Kenya and the wider African continent.
“We shall drill, baby, drill,” Trump said, dismissing the global trend away from fossil fuels.
“The global world is moving away from fossil fuels, but here we have Trump saying we will drill. That should worry the entire globe, particularly the global south,” K’acholla said.
Trump has also taken a hard stance on illegal immigration, which could impact immigrants, including those from Kenya, who may have settled in the US without proper documentation.
“The ones that are likely to be in trouble are those who violated their Visa conditions, and there may be some, but it will take time before they are rounded up,” Prof Munene said.
The US President also signed an order stating that his country will no longer recognise birth right citizenship for children of illegal immigrants.
“We shall ensure millions of people go back to their land of origin,” he said.
As the US moves forward with its aid review, it remains to be seen how many international programmes, including those in Kenya, will be impacted.
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