Africa’s coup crisis: Why eight countries are under military rule and what’s next

Two coups and one foiled attempt within just eight weeks mark a striking new phase even by Africa’s recent standards.

In October, the military in Madagascar deposed the president following weeks of protests. In November, soldiers in Guinea-Bissau removed the head of state shortly after what they considered a rigged election.

In early December, a group of soldiers calling themselves the "Military Committee for Renewal" announced a takeover in Benin. They were ultimately arrested following intervention by the presidential guard and regional partners.

Eight African countries are currently under military rule, creating a so-called “coup belt” across the continent, particularly in the predominantly French-speaking Sahel region.

According to Jakkie Cilliers, founder and former Executive Director of the Institute for Security Studies (ISS), Africa’s situation is comparable to other continents.

Rapid population growth

"The challenge in West Africa and the Sahel is that you've got very rapid population growth," Cilliers told DW.

"Many young people, particularly young men who are primarily responsible for instability, are increasingly well educated, but there are no jobs and no opportunities. And that is a very volatile situation," he added.

Cilliers likened the socioeconomic conditions to gasoline soaking a rag: the more fuel there is, the more dangerous a spark becomes — in other words, the more likely a coup is to occur. A successful coup elsewhere can also generate momentum, motivating renegade military personnel to take action in their own country.

He identified three structural drivers of coups: economic pressure (which, for example, triggered the Arab Spring in 2011), security crises (such as those in the Sahel), and tensions surrounding elections.

"Because elections raise the stakes, particularly when incumbents try to extend power or where institutions are weak," Cilliers explained.

Addressing the root causes

Beverly Ochieng, a researcher in the Africa programme at the US-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Dakar, emphasised the importance of addressing the root causes that fuel coups.

"It's always worth looking out for all of these various triggers," Ochieng told DW. "Is there a high level of socioeconomic grievances? Are there misgivings within the military about either their treatment or whether they're being sufficiently paid or their working conditions are right? Are there external instigators who want to take advantage of discontent with the government to then try to mobilise en masse and try to disrupt the cohesiveness of institutions?"

Other Topics To Read

• Africa
• Niger
• elections
• ECOWAS
• African Union
• Democracy
• political instability
• sahel
• Benin
• Africa coups
• Military Rule in Africa
• Africa’s coup crisis: Why eight countries are under military rule and what’s next
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For Ochieng, some countries display particular vulnerabilities. Even if coups are not occurring, they could succeed if attempted.

Strict secrecy

Every coup plan begins with strict secrecy; otherwise, those involved risk immediate arrest. In this sense, predicting which countries might follow the current wave of coups — and when — is extremely difficult.

Ochieng highlighted a particular risk in the Sahel states of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, all already under military rule. Chad is also vulnerable due to divisions within the military.

She also mentioned Côte d’Ivoire, where President Alassane Ouattara has just begun his fourth term.

"This was very controversial among the opposition, and the country has a history of military intervention," she noted.

Guinea is another state to watch. Elections scheduled for 28 December are expected to conclude the transition period following the September 2021 coup.

"But it's still a source of concern, especially given the fact that the opposition is not likely to take part in this election or in successive elections," Ochieng said, noting divisions over how junta members have managed rivals within the military. "It's another country worth looking out for."

Coups preventable

Even when conditions are ripe and mutineers hatch a plan, coups can still be prevented. In Benin, President Patrice Talon’s government regained the upper hand within hours.

Soldiers from an ECOWAS task force and from Nigeria, which has an interest in maintaining regional stability, as well as support from former colonial power France, provided intelligence and logistical assistance to suppress the coup.

For Beverly Ochieng, Benin demonstrates what is possible when governments and regional communities act swiftly and decisively.

"It's really about how well both the government and the regional community are able to put measures in place and even just the proactiveness, because this is probably the first coup that has been successfully defused, just at the point when it was happening."

She believes the same could have been achieved in Niger in July 2023.

"Unlike the others, Niger, I've always felt could potentially have been defused, but the concern was the standoff between the Sahelians and the ECOWAS standby force that was supposed to be put in place, and that delayed decision-making."

Suspend membership

In recent coups, ECOWAS and the African Union (AU) have had no choice but to suspend membership and impose sanctions.

Does the Benin example suggest that regional organisations are now better equipped to respond to coup crises?

"We have recently seen that ECOWAS and the African Union have taken a more forward-leaning, robust approach in what's happened recently," Cilliers said, adding cautiously that he was unsure how much of a deterrent effect this will have.

However, he stressed that new coups are unlikely to gain popular support easily.

"The promise of the coups in West Africa has not really delivered as we all expected. These problems are deep-seated, they are structural, and there's no short-term solution to them," Cilliers said.

He emphasised that long-term reduction of coup risks depends on solid development that benefits the entire population, including access to education, basic goods, rights, and economic opportunities.