Global temperatures projected to remain elevated until 2029 - report
The WMO projects that average near-surface global temperatures for each year between 2025 and 2029 will range between 1.2 degrees Celsius and 1.9 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
Global temperatures are projected to remain very high from 2025 to 2029, with at least one year possibly becoming the hottest on record, according to the latest report by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO).
In its 2025 edition of the Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update, the WMO projects that average near-surface global temperatures for each year between 2025 and 2029 will range between 1.2 degrees Celsius and 1.9 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, measured from the 1850–1900 period.
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According to the WMO, there is an 80 per cent likelihood that one of the years between 2025 and 2029 will surpass 2024 as the hottest year ever recorded.
Furthermore, there is an 86 per cent chance that at least one of these years will experience a global temperature rise exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius above the 1850–1900 average.
“It is likely (80 per cent chance) that at least one year between 2025 and 2029 will be warmer than the warmest year on record (currently 2024) and although exceptionally unlikely, there is now also a chance (1 per cent ) of at least one year exceeding 2°C of warming in the next five years,” the report reads.
The WMO also reported a 70 per cent chance that the average global temperature across the full five-year period will be more than 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels.
This figure has increased significantly from 47 per cent in last year’s report for the 2024–2028 period, and from 32 per cent in the 2023 report covering 2023–2027.
The report also highlighted the growing risks associated with each fraction of a degree of warming, including intensified heatwaves, more frequent extreme rainfall, longer and harsher droughts, accelerated melting of glaciers and polar ice, ocean warming, and sea level rise.
Long-term warming (averaged over decades) remains below 1.5 degrees Celsius.
This report was released just months after the WMO’s State of the Global Climate 2024 report, which indicated that 2024 was likely the first full year to exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial temperatures.
It also marked 2024 as the hottest year since global climate records began 175 years ago.
Under the Paris Agreement, countries agreed to hold the increase in long-term global average surface temperature well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and pursue efforts to limit the increase to 1.5°C.
The scientific community has repeatedly warned that warming of more than 1.5 degrees Celsius risks unleashing far more severe climate change impacts and extreme weather, and every fraction of a degree of warming matters.
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