El Niño to usher dry spell before flood risk in Kenya, KMSA warns

El Niño to usher dry spell before flood risk in Kenya, KMSA warns

The Coast is expected to receive near-normal to slightly above-normal rainfall, while Nairobi and surrounding highland areas may experience occasional cool, cloudy weather and light showers.

El Niño conditions are expected to develop in 2026, prompting the Kenya Meteorological Service Authority (KMSA) to issue an early warning about possible weather extremes across the country.
According to global climate forecasts, there is an 80-82 per cent probability that El Niño will emerge between June and August 2026, with the likelihood increasing to 90-96 per cent that it will persist through the end of the year. Meteorologists indicate that the event could be moderate to strong in intensity.
KMSA forecasts that Kenya may experience a split weather pattern during the year. Between June and August, many parts of the country are expected to receive near-average to below-average rainfall, particularly in the Highlands West of the Rift Valley, the Lake Victoria Basin, the Rift Valley, and northwestern Kenya. Southeastern and northeastern regions are likely to remain mostly dry and warmer than usual.
The Coast is expected to receive near-normal to slightly above-normal rainfall, while Nairobi and surrounding highland areas may experience occasional cool, cloudy weather and light showers.
However, weather conditions could change significantly during the October–November–December rainy season. El Niño is typically associated with enhanced rainfall in Kenya, increasing the possibility of flooding, infrastructure damage, and disruptions to transport and agricultural activities.
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KMSA also noted that the impact of El Niño may be strengthened if the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), currently neutral, shifts to a positive phase later in the year. Such a combination often leads to heavier rainfall across East Africa.
The Authority has urged the public, county governments, and disaster management agencies to stay informed through official weather updates and prepare for both potential dry spells and flood risks in 2026.

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