Attack on Somalia president's convoy exposes rising threat of terror in Sahel region
According to the Global Terrorism Index, 2025, the Sahel is now the most affected region globally, accounting for over half of all deaths from terrorism in 2024.
Yesterday's attempt on the life of Somalia President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud by Al-Shabaab insurgents may have marked a major shift in the presidential logistics of the country, but on the other hand, it has exposed the scale at which the threat of terror in the Sahel region has increased.
According to the Global Terrorism Index, 2025, the Sahel is now the most affected region globally, accounting for over half of all deaths from terrorism in 2024, and 19 per cent of attacks globally with five of the ten countries most impacted by terrorism being in the Sahel region.
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They are Niger, Burkina Faso, Mali, Nigeria and Somalia which also bore the greatest burden of impact of terror in 2024, accounting for the world's largest casualties and worst attacks of the year.
"Weak governance, ethnic tensions, and ecological degradation have fuelled terrorism, worsened by transnational jihadist growth and geopolitical competition," the report shows.
This is in addition to Sahel's instability, with extremist groups exploiting weak governance, porous borders, and local grievances, to sustain their operations.
While Somalia embarked on a major offensive against Al-Shabaab in 2024, achieving significant strides including the recapture of El Buur, a major militant stronghold, the report states that the progress stalled due to Al-Shabaab's counterattacks and internal challenges, such as looting of military convoys by local militias.
The situation led to concerns over a security vacuum with the exit of the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) leading to a four-month delay in its withdrawal and eventual decision to approve yet another UN mission-AUSSOM which kicked off its operations in January this year.
Counter-terrorism efforts
The counter-terrorism efforts further saw deaths in Somalia decrease by almost 20 per cent in 2024, driven by the success of operations by the Somali government and allied forces.
"The administrative region of Banaadir, home to the nation's capital, Mogadishu, has long been the epicentre of terrorist activity by Al-Shabaab. While attacks in Banaadir dropped by almost a third, deaths more than doubled from 63 in 2023 to 131 in 2024. Despite experiencing almost the same number of attacks as the year prior, deaths in the Shabeellaha Hoose region dropped by over a third. Deaths from terrorism remained relatively static in most other regions of Somalia. Al-Shabaab's deadliest attack of the year occurred in Mogadishu, where a suicide bomber and a gunman killed 37 people at a beach," the report shows.
In Kenya, deaths attributed to Al-Shabaab in Kenya last year were concentrated in the Mandera region along the Somali border, which recorded eight attacks resulting in 23 fatalities. Half of these deaths were from one attack, where an explosion killed 12 civilians, marking the country's deadliest attack of that year.
Notably, Al-Shabaab was responsible for 33 deaths in Kenya in 2024, a 57 per cent decrease compared to the year prior.
"The decreased Al-Shabaab activity within Kenya can be attributed to enhanced counterterrorism operations, intelligence gathering, inter-agency collaboration and communications with local communities within the last year," the report states.
Military targets
The report added that the highest proportion of Al-Shabaab attacks in 2024 were targeted towards the military, representing almost 40 per cent of the total, followed by civilians at 28 per cent.
However, civilians made up the majority of casualties, with 132 deaths, a third of those killed in al-Shabaab attacks in 2024.
On its favoured tactics, Al-Shabaab notably remained consistent in utilising bombings and armed assaults as its main modes of attack with over half of terrorism deaths attributed to the insurgents in 2024 being as a result of bombings, while armed assaults accounted for almost a third of deaths.
Elsewhere, across the Sahel region, geopolitical changes continued to shape security dynamics thus allowing groups such as Jamaat Nusrat Al-Islam wal Muslimeen (JNIM) to expand their activities into coastal West Africa.
Togo recorded its worst year for terrorism since the inception of the Index, reflecting the broader spread of terrorist activity beyond the Sahel's traditional hotspots.
Competition over natural resources, especially gold, has also played a role in the region's instability. Niger, the world's seventh-largest uranium producer, has also attracted growing international interest as global powers seek to secure access to critical materials.
Four terrorist groups
The document, published annually by the Institute for Economics and Peace, also notes that the four terrorist groups that were responsible for the most deaths in 2024 were Islamic State (IS), Jamaat Nusrat Al-Islam wal Muslimeen (JNIM), Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), and al-Shabaab.
The four terrorist organisations are said to have increased their activity, with deaths attributed to these groups increasing by 11 per cent to 4,204. In 2023, these groups were active in 29 countries, which increased to 30 countries in 2024.
"Their combined influence continues to increase, with deaths attributed to these groups increasing by 11 per cent to 4,204 deaths. Islamic State (IS) and its affiliates remained the world's deadliest terrorist group in 2024, and is active in 23 countries, one more than in 2023. Deaths attributed to the group and its affiliates declined by ten per cent, from 1,996 to 1,805 deaths," it says.
Fortunately, however, sustained counter-terror operations saw the year record reduced deaths tally and number of attacks.
"These improvements were offset by the ongoing spread of terrorism and the lingering impact of exceptional events in 2023. The number of countries that experienced a terrorist attack increased from 58 to 66 countries in 2024. While 34 countries improved in 2024, 45 deteriorated, the most countries to deteriorate in a single year since 2018. Additionally, the world's four deadliest terrorist organisations substantially increased the number of people they killed, while also slightly expanding the number of countries within which they are active," the report says.
Declining IS activity
The report further notably states that in 2024, IS activity in sub-Saharan Africa declined considerably, with deaths dropping by 44 per cent, from 1,185 in 2023 to 664 in 2024.
Consequently, the number of attacks mirrored this trend, falling by almost a third, from 148 in 2023 to 100 in 2024.
On tactics used by the Islamic State, the report says the most common target for IS attacks continues to be the military, representing almost half of all IS attacks in 2024 but civilians surpassed the military in casualties from the group's attacks, comprising over a third of such deaths.
"Armed attacks remained IS's favoured tactic for the sixth consecutive year, followed by bombings. In 2024, there were 397 armed attacks, resulting in 1,309 people killed, a decline compared to the 1,605 deaths from armed attacks in 2023," the report shows.
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