Africa fails to honour Raila after multiple disappointments at home

Kenya's Opposition chief Raila Odinga on Saturday failed to get Africa's approval to lead them at the African Union despite a rigorous campaign that saw him visit several countries.

Odinga's elimination in the AUC chairperson race, leaving Djibouti's candidate Mahmoud Youssouf as the outright winner has marked another milestone in the veteran politician's losing streak.

The Orange Democratic Movement Party head was eliminated after losing momentum in subsequent rounds of voting.

Currently aged 80, Odinga made his fifth attempt at the presidency in the 2022 August elections and lost to President William Ruto. He has however in the past come close to the top job when he was appointed prime minister in a coalition government in 2008.

According to the official results of the highly contested election of 2007, he narrowly lost but did not, for the first time, go to court to challenge the outcome.

Odinga has been seen as the political heir to his father, Jaramogi Odinga. He was Kenya's first vice-president after independence but walked out of the government in 1966 after falling out with then-leader Jomo Kenyatta, the father of former president Uhuru Kenyatta.

Odinga is married to Mama Ida and together they have four children - the late Fidel, Rosemary, Junior and Winnie.

Fidel was named after Cuban leader Fidel Castro and Mr Odinga once explained that he chose the name because his son was born at the height of the Cold War, and "Mr Castro was seen to be standing against the US in the Vietnam war".

In the run-up to the 2013 elections, Odinga's ODM formed the Coalition for Reforms and Democracy (CORD) alliance with the then Kenyan Vice President. Kalonzo Musyoka's Wiper Democratic Movement and other parties failed to capture power.

In the 2017 elections, he remained politically active. Odinga's ODM party and the other parties that were previously part of the CORD coalition allied with more parties to form the National Super Alliance (NASA). The new alliance backed Odinga for president and Musyoka for deputy president to stand in the upcoming elections. Court nullified Kenyatta's victory in this election and ordered a fresh one, however, Odinga declined to participate, claiming that the contest was not going to be free and fair.

"Handshake"

After the tumultuous 2017 presidential election contest, Odinga and Kenyatta reconciled shortly in March 2018 in the famous "handshake" as well as viewed as a symbol of bipartisanship.

Despite losing yet another bid to lead the country in 2022, Odinga has remained at the heart of the country's politics, playing central roles in policy-changing decisions such as the formation of the National Dialogue Committee (NADCO) and the recent impeachment of Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua.

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The opposition leader has always found a way to bounce back and influence governance and policy since losing his first election to President Daniel Arap Moi in 1997, where he emerged third in a contest a united opposition could have easily won.

He has wielded control over local politics through secret deals aimed at stabilising fragile governments, such as in 1997 when Moi won with just over 30 per cent of the vote, and again in June and July 2024, during the Gen Z uprising that nearly toppled the Kenya Kwanza administration.

Political analyst Martin Andati argues that through street protests, Raila continued to resonate strongly with Kenyans grappling with economic hardships and rising living costs.

"He pushes them into a corner, making those in power vulnerable because, when businesses are disrupted, the government cannot collect enough revenue. He understands that when people are on the streets, it becomes difficult for the country to generate wealth," said Andati.

Andati, who knows Raila well from their time working together in the ODM party, describes him as a political genius. He asserts that Raila understands and commands his constituency so effectively that it is nearly impossible to marginalize or render him politically inconsequential.

"He has been the biggest competitor in presidential elections, losing narrowly by the slightest of margins, and that tells you the kind of politician he is," said Andati.

Throughout his career, Raila has also been a destabilising factor, often rocking successive governments, leading to resignations and restructuring. This dates back to 2001 when he was appointed to two ministerial positions in President Moi's cabinet as Minister for Energy.