The Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) has projected a slowdown in global food production over the coming year, warning that rising climate, geopolitical, and market risks could weigh on agricultural output despite food supplies remaining relatively strong.
The agency says weather uncertainties, including the possible emergence of El Niño, alongside volatility in energy and fertiliser markets, trade policy uncertainty and ongoing conflicts, are expected to pose significant challenges to global food production and access.
Among the commodities expected to be affected most are cereals.
FAO forecasts global cereal production to decline by two per cent in 2026 to 2.982 billion tonnes, marking the first drop after record harvests, although ample stocks are expected to cushion global markets from immediate shortages.
However, the report notes that ample global stocks are likely to cushion markets from immediate shortages.
Per capita cereal consumption in Low-Income Food-Deficient Countries is projected to decline by 0.4 per cent, underscoring continued challenges for vulnerable populations.
“Agrifood systems appear robust at a production level, but risks are growing, and many of them have the potential to have rapid and adverse effects for global supply and access,” said FAO Chief Economist Maximo Torero.
“We need to double down on resilience by keeping trade flows open and supply chain functioning, while preparing for local weather shocks.”
Looking at specifics, wheat production is forecast to decline by 3.8 per cent to 810.9 million tonnes, largely due to smaller harvests in Australia, the European Union and the United States, where output is expected to drop by more than 21 per cent.
Coarse grain production is also projected to fall by 1.2 per cent because of lower plantings and yields in North America, although stronger maize production in Argentina is expected to provide some support.
In contrast, global soybean production is forecast to reach a record 432.3 million tonnes, driven by expanding output in Brazil and Russia.
Meat production is expected to grow by one per cent, led by a 2.5 per cent increase in poultry production, while fisheries and aquaculture output are projected to rise to 200.5 million tonnes, supported by continued expansion in aquaculture.
The report also highlights growing uncertainty in fertiliser markets, where global trade volumes fell between 20 and 25 per cent during the first four months of 2026 compared to a year earlier.
Although fertiliser prices have eased recently, FAO warns that stalled purchases in Europe and North America and uncertainty over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could tighten supplies ahead of the next planting season.
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