Short rains expected to bring relief to Kenyan farmers

Farmers across Kenya can expect short rains to begin this month as predicted, allowing them to keep their planting schedules on track.

According to the latest forecast, rains have already started in some regions, particularly in Western Kenya, and are expected to continue.

David Gikungu, the director of the Meteorological Department on Tuesday confirmed that several counties would experience rainfall throughout the month.

These include Kakamega, Busia, Vihiga, Nandi, Elgeyo Marakwet, West Pokot, Baringo, Kisumu, Trans Nzoia, Siaya, Bungoma, Bomet, Uasin Gishu, Kisii, Kericho, Nyamira, Migori, Homa Bay, and parts of Nakuru and Laikipia counties.

"These counties are likely to receive rainfall with occasional breaks during the month. The expected total rainfall amounts are projected to be near or above the long-term average for October," Gikungu said.

In Turkana, Samburu, and parts of Marsabit, rainfall is expected to continue but will likely be followed by a dry spell.

The short rains, which typically last from late October to December, are crucial for farmers, particularly in Central and Eastern regions.

This season provides essential rainfall needed for crops and water supply.

The forecast divides the country into two distinct areas: the western half, where enough rainfall is expected, and the eastern regions, which may experience depressed rainfall.

La Niña weather phenomenon

Gikungu explained that the variation is linked to the La Niña weather phenomenon, which leads to reduced rainfall.

"La Niña was expected to begin in September but has not yet developed. However, it is likely to form between September and November," he said.

The Director noted that the probability of La Niña occurring stands at 71 per cent, with the effects expected to persist into early 2025.

In Central Kenya, which includes counties like Nairobi, Kiambu, Murang'a, Embu, Meru, Nyeri, Tharaka Nithi, Kirinyaga, and parts of Laikipia, the short rains are forecast to begin in the third or fourth week of October.

While some areas have already received rainfall, Dr. Gikungu clarified that this early rain would stop briefly, followed by a dry spell before the actual short rains start towards the end of the month.

"The expected total rainfall for this region is likely to be near or slightly above the long-term average for October," he said.

The Eastern half of the country, including Kajiado, Makueni, Machakos, Taita Taveta, and Kitui counties, is expected to face dry conditions for most of October.

The short rains in these areas are likely to arrive between the last week of October and the first week of November.

Dr. Gikungu added that Kajiado and Taita Taveta might experience even later rainfall, with rains expected between the first and second week of November.

However, northern parts of Kajiado may receive occasional rains early in October, followed by a dry period.

"The rainfall in these areas is likely to be near or slightly below the long-term average for October, except in Machakos and northern Kajiado, where rainfall amounts could be slightly above the October average," he said.

Counties in Northeastern Kenya are predicted to experience dry weather for most of October.

While the short rains are essential for the agricultural cycle, these regions may continue to struggle with limited rainfall due to the looming La Niña effects.

Farmers and residents in the affected areas are advised to monitor weather updates and plan their activities accordingly as the rains approach.