DRC set to overtake Ethiopia as Sub-Saharan Africa’s fifth-largest economy: IMF

DRC set to overtake Ethiopia as Sub-Saharan Africa’s fifth-largest economy: IMF
DRC set to overtake Ethiopia as Sub-Saharan Africa’s fifth-largest economy: IMF - A view in Kinshasa, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). (Photo: Xinhua/Han Xu)
A view in Kinshasa, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). (Photo: Xinhua/Han Xu)

Despite the ranking shift, Ethiopia’s economy is projected to grow faster, with the IMF forecasting a 9.2 per cent expansion compared to Congo’s 5.9 per cent.

The Democratic Republic of Congo is poised to surpass Ethiopia to become sub-Saharan Africa’s fifth-largest economy in 2026, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), as cited by Bloomberg.
The IMF estimates Congo’s gross domestic product will reach $123 billion (Sh15.86 trillion) this year, slightly ahead of Ethiopia’s projected $122 billion (Sh15.73 trillion).
The shift comes as Ethiopia’s currency, the birr, has depreciated by about 17 per cent over the past year, in contrast to Congo’s strengthening currency. South Africa is expected to retain its position as the region’s largest economy, followed by Nigeria, Angola, and Kenya.

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The shift is driven largely by Congo’s mining boom and a strengthening currency. The country, the world’s leading cobalt producer and a major source of copper, is attracting increased global investment amid rising demand for battery metals.
Congo recently raised $1.25 billion (Sh161.19 billion) from its debut dollar bond sale, benefiting from improved market sentiment following a ceasefire linked to tensions involving the US and Iran. Its currency has appreciated by more than 25 per cent against the US dollar over the past year.
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In contrast, Ethiopia liberalised the birr in 2024 after decades of tight controls, contributing to its depreciation. Authorities have since intervened in the market, reportedly spending at least $1.35 billion to stabilise the currency.

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Ethiopia is also facing fuel supply constraints, partly linked to disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil transit route.
Despite the ranking shift, Ethiopia’s economy is projected to grow faster, with the IMF forecasting a 9.2 per cent expansion compared to Congo’s 5.9 per cent. Sub-Saharan Africa as a whole is expected to grow by 4.3 per cent in 2026.

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