Kenya Met warns of increased rains from October as strong El Niño event looms

Kenya Met warns of increased rains from October as strong El Niño event looms
Kenya Met warns of increased rains from October as strong El Niño event looms - Residents wade through flood waters after a seasonal river burst its banks following heavy rainfall in Kitengela municipality of Kajiado County, near Nairobi, Kenya May 1, 2024. (Photo: REUTERS/Thomas Mukoya)
Residents wade through flood waters after a seasonal river burst its banks following heavy rainfall in Kitengela municipality of Kajiado County, near Nairobi, Kenya May 1, 2024. (Photo: REUTERS/Thomas Mukoya)

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Head of Public Weather Services Hannah Kimani said there is an 81 per cent probability that the 2026 El Niño will be very strong and a 97 per cent chance that it will persist into the first months of 2027.

Kenya is likely to experience above‑normal rainfall from October as a strong El Niño event develops, raising the risk of wetter conditions extending into early 2027, according to the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD).
Releasing the preliminary weather outlook, Head of Public Weather Services Hannah Kimani said there is an 81 per cent probability that the 2026 El Niño will be very strong and a 97 per cent chance that it will persist into the first months of 2027.
Kimani said the country is expected to transition from below‑normal rainfall in the coming weeks to wetter‑than‑average conditions during the October-November-December short rains season.

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She cautioned that the strength of El Niño alone does not determine the amount of rainfall Kenya will receive.
Kimani explained that rainfall will largely be influenced by the Indian Ocean Dipole, a climate phenomenon caused by differences in sea surface temperatures across the Indian Ocean. Depending on whether the IOD is positive or negative, it can either enhance or suppress the effects of El Niño over East Africa.
KMD projects below‑average rainfall across much of western Kenya during the August-September-October period. However, conditions are expected to change from October, with most parts of the country likely to receive above‑average rainfall through November.

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The Department cautioned that El Niño is not rainfall itself but a naturally occurring climate pattern in the tropical Pacific Ocean that develops every two to seven years and influences weather globally.
El Niño has been linked to several major flooding events in Kenya. The country experienced one of its worst episodes in 1997-1998, when widespread floods claimed lives, displaced thousands, and destroyed infrastructure.
Other significant El Niño events occurred in 2006-2007, 2015-2016, and 2023-2024, the latter bringing heavy rains, floods, and landslides that killed hundreds and caused extensive damage.

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