El Niño likely to return between May and July 2026 - weather agencies

Global weather outlooks now indicate a possible return of El Niño conditions later this year, following a brief period of weak La Niña that is fading more rapidly than initially expected.

Recent projections from major weather agencies indicate that climate patterns are shifting from a weak La Niña to a weak El Niño by the middle of the year.

While specialists say it is still early to define the full impact, El Niño events are often linked to above-average rainfall in Kenya.

Forecasts by the US Climate Prediction Centre and other global weather centres indicate that El Niño may begin forming between May and July 2026, with a chance that it could grow to moderate or strong levels.

“For longer forecast horizons, there are growing chances of El Niño, though there remains uncertainty given the lower accuracy of model forecasts through the spring,” the US Met Office said in a statement.

Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology has also reported similar findings, cautioning that forecasts beyond May remain difficult to predict at this stage of the year.

The Kenya Meteorological Department has yet to issue an official response on the outlook. However, it is expected to publish its February three-month forecast covering the long rains season from March to May.

The India Meteorological Department has also flagged a higher likelihood of El Niño conditions developing during the June-July-August period.

“It is too early to say with certainty during which month El Niño will emerge. These are very early forecasts, and there will be more clarity in the coming months,” said Dr Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, India Meteorological Department (IMD) director general.

Despite the expected shift, forecasters agree that La Niña, which often causes dry conditions in Kenya, is ending rapidly. Even so, its effects are still being felt in parts of northern Kenya.

Against this backdrop, the Kenya Red Cross Society has urged the government to embed climate risk planning into national development strategies and budgeting.

The organisation explained that climate risk management focuses on early action to reduce climate threats, limit damage, and help communities cope with both extreme weather events and slow-moving climate changes.

“More than 2.1 million people face an acute food crisis in arid and semi-arid regions, with thousands of children malnourished and in need of urgent support,” Kenya Red Cross Society secretary general Ahmed Idris said.

Ahmed added that life-saving humanitarian support needs to be expanded. The society said it will continue working with partners, including UNICEF, the World Food Programme and the US Embassy to deliver urgent assistance such as food, water and medicines.

Data from the National Drought Management Authority shows that drought conditions across arid and semi-arid counties are worsening after the poor performance of the October to December 2025 short rains season.

According to the Drought Early Warning System run by NDMA, Mandera County remains in the ‘Alarm’ drought phase.

NDMA is the government agency tasked with coordinating drought risk management efforts across the country.