A video of Lugari Member of Parliament (MP) Nabii Nabwera pleading with a crowd not to desert a rally attended by top Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) leaders has underscored how the once‑formidable political outfit, founded by the late Raila Odinga, is quickly losing favour in its traditional support bases.
The ODM bigwigs were in Malava Constituency, Kakamega County, where they jointly proposed Cooperatives Cabinet Secretary (CS) Wicliffe Oparanya as President William Ruto’s running mate in the 2027 presidential race.
Since Raila’s untimely demise last year, the party’s popularity has declined countrywide. Birthed out of the 2005 constitutional referendum and led by prominent figures including Raila, Anyang' Nyong'o, and James Orengo, it once faced little competition in strongholds such as Nyanza, Western and coastal regions.
The Coast region, however, is emerging as one of the country’s fiercely contested battlegrounds as political alliances shift ahead of the 2027 General Election. For years, it stood as one of ODM’s most dependable bases, delivering overwhelming support election after election.
According to Suba South MP Caroli Omondi, ODM is “politically dead” after abandoning the values, agenda and aspirations that built its support.
Speaking to Vybes Radio on Tuesday, July 28, 2026, Omondi declared ODM had become an avenue for personal enrichment instead of advancing the interests of its members and ordinary Kenyans.
“To be frank, ODM is dead. A lot of people make the mistake of thinking that a party is just a name,” the Linda Mwananchi‑allied MP said. “A party is the values you carry, the aspirations, the agenda, the work plans, and the manifesto, and ODM has betrayed all of those.”
ODM Party leaders led by National Chairperson Gladys Wanga, Mining Cabinet Secretary Hassan Joho and Mombasa Governor Abdulswamad Nassir during an event organised by the party in Kilifi on Sunday. / Wanga X
Political analyst James Oloo added that ODM’s dwindling popularity is a result of engaging in politics the late Raila would not have subscribed to were he alive.
“Raila never begged to support anybody like his party is now doing. He was formidable, unpredictable and domineering. Many supporters of the ODM Party initially viewed it as a liberating movement and not an outfit that supports excesses,” Oloo told The Eastleigh Voice.
Last week, a survey by polling company TIFA, released Friday, July 24, 2026, noted that Kenya’s political landscape is becoming increasingly competitive as new formations gain ground ahead of 2027.
According to TIFA, support for both ODM and the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) has declined significantly compared to their standing after the 2022 elections. It indicated that Edwin Sifuna’s ODM faction, Linda Mwananchi, has overtaken the party’s traditional base, enjoying 74 per cent backing compared to the Oburu Oginga‑led Linda Ground faction’s 20 per cent.
It is this pressure to regain support that has pushed ODM to intensify demands on its coalition partner, UDA, declaring it will only back Ruto’s re‑election bid if the party secures the deputy president’s position in what leaders described as a 50‑50 power‑sharing arrangement.
Speaking during a past party meeting, ODM Deputy Party Leader Simba Arati, National Assembly Minority Leader Junet Mohamed and Budget Committee Chairperson Samuel Atandi insisted the party would not settle for anything less than an equal deal ahead of 2027.
Suna East MP Junet Mohamed at the ODM Special Delegates Convention held at Jamhuri Grounds on March 27, 2026. (Photo: X/Junet Mohamed)
“As President Ruto is going for the presidency, we will also go for the deputy as a party. That’s the position. It’s clear,” Arati said.
Arati added that the agreement between ODM and UDA must be based on equality, maintaining the party would not compromise on its demand for the deputy president’s slot.
“Our party, ODM and UDA will go 50‑50. There is no shortcut about it. If we have no 50, there is no sorry. It’s 50‑50,” he declared.
Junet echoed the sentiments, saying ODM had already settled on pursuing the country’s second‑highest office if UDA retained the presidential ticket.
“If UDA produces the presidential candidate, ODM must produce the deputy presidential candidate so that the two parties can be together in the next election. It is a confirmed position that we will go for the deputy president’s position,” Junet said.
ODM’s latest demands come at a time when the party is facing internal divisions following the fallout that led to the exit of former Secretary‑General Sifuna.
Siaya Governor James Orengo has claimed the party lost direction after sidelining Sifuna, arguing that political cooperation between ODM and Ruto had weakened the outfit.
Speaking during the Linda Mwananchi rally in Bungoma, Orengo said ODM lost its identity after changes in leadership following Raila Odinga’s death.
“ODM ilikufa wakati walianza kuchezea Sifuna,” Orengo said.
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