Conflict, insecurity, limited access to protection, and worsening economic conditions continue to drive thousands of people from the Horn of Africa onto the Eastern Route toward Yemen and the Gulf, according to a new regional overview by the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR), which warns that the corridor remains “one of the world’s most active and dangerous mixed-movement corridors.”
In its July 2026 overview, UNHCR’s Regional Bureau for Eastern and Southern Africa (RBESA) said migration along the Eastern Route is rarely a straightforward journey, with many migrants and refugees spending months or even years in Somalia and Djibouti before attempting to cross the Red Sea.
“Journeys are rarely linear: people pause, change course, or remain in Djibouti and Somalia for months or years, depending on their access to protection, legal status and resources,” the report states. It adds that evidence collected along the route shows “onward movement is a response to unmet protection needs, not a simple choice,” emphasising that “timely access to asylum can change the course of a journey.”
The assessment comes against the backdrop of a sharp increase in migration along the corridor. As Addis Standard previously reported, more than 506,600 outward movements were recorded along the Eastern Route during the latest reporting period, representing an 18 per cent increase from the previous year. The IOM said the route had become the deadliest on record, despite mounting dangers faced by migrants travelling from the Horn of Africa toward Yemen and the Gulf.
According to the IOM, Ethiopian nationals accounted for 97 per cent of all tracked migrants, while 95 per cent cited economic hardship as their primary reason for leaving. The agency also reported that smugglers have increasingly adopted remote routes that bypass official monitoring points and border checkpoints in Ethiopia, Djibouti, Somalia and Yemen, making movements more difficult to track and exposing migrants to greater risks. Addis Abeba publications
The route has witnessed repeated deadly incidents, including shipwrecks off the Djiboutian coast, deaths from extreme heat in the Obock desert, and killings and abuses in Yemen and Somalia.
Against this backdrop, the latest infographic report identifies several interconnected factors driving continued movement along the Eastern Route.
Foremost among them is conflict, insecurity and political instability. According to UNHCR, “ongoing violence, including forced recruitment, drives people to leave in search of safety.”
Insecurity in Ethiopia’s Oromia, Amhara and Tigray regions, combined with limited documentation and economic opportunities, continues to push people to leave the country, the report states. It further notes that trafficking networks operating along the Eritrea-Tigray-Addis Ababa-Afar-Djibouti corridor expose migrants, particularly young adults, to extortion and abuse.
It also identifies limited access to protection and legal status as a key driver.
“Without registration or legal status, many see onward movement as their only option,” the report states, adding that survey respondents indicated they “would stay if they had access to asylum and protection.” The agency argues that strengthening asylum systems and ensuring access to international protection could significantly reduce dangerous onward movements.
Socio-economic vulnerability and lack of opportunities remain major factors. Limited employment, restricted educational opportunities and scarce livelihoods, particularly for young people, combined with protection concerns, encourage migration.
In addition, family reunification and diaspora networks continue to influence destination choices, while perceived employment opportunities in Gulf countries remain a significant pull factor.
“Perceived jobs, higher income and Gulf reconstruction activities and labour demand remain a strong draw, despite widespread awareness of the dangers,” the report states, cautioning that the risks facing migrants intensify throughout the journey.
Financial constraints, insecurity and legal barriers increasingly leave migrants stranded in Somalia for months or years, where they face “violence, robbery, detention and trafficking.” The report adds that people granted refugee status in Somalia or Djibouti are generally more likely to remain than continue irregular onward movement. Meanwhile, Djibouti’s Obock remains the principal departure point for crossings to Yemen, with 200 to 300 people arriving daily despite repeated fatalities at sea.
According to the report, Yemen functions simultaneously as a country of asylum, a transit hub and a destination country. UNHCR estimates that around 90 per cent of new arrivals initially intend to continue to Saudi Arabia or Oman, but notes that many have international protection needs requiring screening and referral. It warns that “risk increases further along the route as people run out of money and become more reliant on smugglers.”
Calling for a coordinated regional response, UNHCR says evidence gathered across Ethiopia, Somalia, Djibouti and Yemen consistently shows that “the great majority of urgent needs go unmet along the way.”
“Protection interventions early in the journey - not only at the final destination - are what change outcomes,” the report says, urging governments and humanitarian actors to preserve access to asylum, strengthen specialised protection services, combat trafficking, expand safe and regular migration pathways, and improve return and reintegration mechanisms along the entire Eastern Route.
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